ArticleBMJ public health2025
Combining mpox vaccination and behavioural changes to control possible future mpox resurgence among men who have sex with men: a mathematical modelling study.
Article in BMJ public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Mpox emergence, epidemiology, biology, clinical features and control.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2026Review
- Epidemiology and characteristics of cases with monkeypox virus clade I in the WHO European Region, 2024 to 2025.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2026Article
- Assessing the impact of vaccination and behavioural change on Mpox transmission in high-risk groups in the Democratic Republic of Congo using an age-structured mathematical model.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- A Review of Epidemiological Modeling Studies on Monkeypox.China CDC weekly · 2026Article
- Viral introductions and return to baseline sexual behaviors maintain low-level mpox incidence in Los Angeles.Nature communications · 2026Article
- The Emerging Threat of Monkeypox: An Updated Overview.Viruses · 2026Review
- Pre-exposure vaccination in the high-risk population is crucial in controlling mpox resurgence in Canada.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Viral introductions and return to baseline sexual behaviors maintain low-level mpox incidence in Los Angeles County, USA, 2023-2024.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
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Abstract
Introduction: The 2022 outbreak of mpox subclade IIb in the Netherlands affected primarily men who have sex with men (MSM). Despite the sharp decline in cases, concerns remain about future mpox outbreaks. This study investigated the effect of mpox introductions, accounting for vaccination, behavioural changes and introductions of subclades with different characteristics. Methods: This study developed a compartmental model for mpox among MSM. Three levels of sexual activity were distinguished: low, medium and high. The group with high activity accounted for 5% of the population with the highest numbers of sexual partners, and the group with low activity included 60% with the lowest numbers of partners. In the model, individuals were allowed to change sexual activity level. Several scenarios with mpox introductions were examined. Results: In January 2024, 54% of MSM with high sexual activity level had immunity; this declined to 39% a year later due to changes in sexual activity. The introduction of five cases in May 2025 resulted in 759 cases in the first 4 months without vaccination after 2023; however, the number of cases was 34% or 48% lower with 3000 vaccinations in August-October 2024 or February-April 2025, respectively. With earlier initiation or greater magnitude of behavioural adaptations, the number of mpox cases was 17%-51% smaller. The introduction of a subclade with 10% higher transmission probability than subclade IIb resulted in 77% more cases. Conclusions: Owing to changes in sexual activity, the fraction immune in the group with high sexual activity will decline, leading to greater possibilities for future mpox outbreaks. The number of cases can be reduced with preventive vaccination and behavioural adaptations. Recurring vaccination campaigns should prioritise individuals with high sexual activity levels, ensuring those entering high-activity groups are reached. Campaigns promoting timely behavioural changes remain crucial.
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