ArticleDiabetology & metabolic syndrome2025
Trends and comparisons of diabetes burden in China and the world from 1990 to 2021,with forecasts to 2050:a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021.
Article in Diabetology & metabolic syndrome, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Induced diabetic neurogenic bladder animal models: application characteristics and standardization proposals via systematic data mining.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2026Pooled it
- Digital health readiness, technology acceptance, and organisational readiness for nurse-led endocrine care in China.BMC health services research · 2026Article
- eHealth Literacy, self-management, and selected clinical and social correlates of nutrition-inflammation level among older adults with diabetes.BMC health services research · 2026Article
- Association of a Health Belief Model-Based Digital Health Intervention with Glycolipid Metabolism and Health Behaviors in Older Adults with Type 2 Diabetes: A Quasi-Experimental Before-After Study.Diabetes, metabolic syndrome and obesity : targets and therapy · 2026Article
- Burden trends and disparities of metabolic risk-attributable peripheral arterial disease in China (1990-2035): a comparative analysis with G20 countries.International journal of public health · 2026Article
- Association of high-density lipoprotein-related inflammatory indicators with diabetic foot ulcer in patients with diabetes: a population-based study.Diabetology & metabolic syndrome · 2025Article
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10 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundDiabetes is a major global public health issue. This study investigated the trends in the age-and gender-specific burden of diabetes in China and worldwide from 1990 to 2021, and predicted the prevalence of diabetes in 2050.
methodsUsing publicly available data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database from 1990 to 2021, we comprehensively applied Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to reveal the epidemiological characteristics, conducted decomposition analysis to identify the driving factors of burden changes, and used the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to project the disease burden of diabetes from 2022 to 2050.
resultsFrom 1990 to 2021, both in China and globally, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) of diabetes showed an upward trend. In contrast, China's age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of diabetes decreased, while the global ASMR increased. The average annual percentage changes (AAPC) of China's ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR were 1.29, 1.76,- 0.30, and 0.76% respectively, compared with 1.74, 2.10, 0.25, and 1.05% for the global diabetes burden.
conclusionsIn China, the incidence, prevalence, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) of diabetes increased, while the mortality rate decreased. It is projected that by 2050, the number of diabetes patients in China will reach 84.01 million, and globally, it will reach 1038.2 million. Given China's large population and the trend of population aging, it is essential to formulate targeted prevention and control strategies to address the challenge of diabetes.
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