ArticleEuropean journal of medical research2025
Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting one-year unplanned readmission in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
Article in European journal of medical research, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Gastroesophageal reflux disease predicts 6-month readmission in acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: development and validation of a nomogram.Journal of thoracic disease · 2026Article
- Symptom trajectory types during recovery from acute exacerbation of COPD and their association with systemic inflammatory burden and prognosis.Frontiers in cell and developmental biology · 2026Article
- Independent Risk Factors and Nomogram-Based Prediction of Pulmonary Fungal Infection in Lung Cancer Inpatients: A Single-Center Retrospective Study.Cancer management and research · 2026Article
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8 authors.
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Abstract
objectiveThe aim of this study was to investigate the influencing factors of unplanned readmission in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) within 1 year after discharge, construct a risk prediction model and evaluate its effect.
methodsIn this prospective study, we included 719 individuals diagnosed with COPD, identify optimal predictors of unplanned readmission and developed a nomogram prediction model. The model's performance was assessed through receiver operator characteristic curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis.
resultsOf 607 patients included in the final analysis, the incidence of readmission within one year was 40.0%. Multivariate regression analysis identified several risk factors for readmission: white blood cell count (WBC; OR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.03-1.12, P = 0.002), disease duration over 10 years (OR = 1.36, 95% CI = 0.75-2.462, P = 0.043), the number of acute exacerbation in the past 1 year (OR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.05-1.20, P = 0.001), and concurrent respiratory failure (OR = 1.50, 95% CI = 0.97-2.33, P = 0.047). The nomogram model based on these factors exhibited an AUC of 0.719 in the model group and 0.676 in the validation group. The calibration curve showed a good degree of fit, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test confirmed no significant deviations in model fit (P > 0.05). The clinical decision curve demonstrated that both the model and the validation groups provided better net benefits than the treat-all tactics or the treat-none tactics with threshold probability values of 0.25-0.95 and 0.25-0.85.
conclusionThe developed model, integrating WBC count, disease duration, number of acute exacerbations within the past year and concurrent respiratory failure, effectively predicts the risk of one-year unplanned readmission in patients with COPD.
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