Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40745090›Full record

ArticleNPJ digital medicine2025

Machine learning based CAGIB score predicts in-hospital mortality of cirrhotic patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding.

Zhaohui Bai, Su Lin, Mingyu Sun, Shanshan Yuan, Mariana Barros Marcondes, Dapeng Ma, Qiang Zhu, Yiling Li, Yingli He, Cyriac Abby Philips and 14 more

Registry-linked trialAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in NPJ digital medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT04662918 (Validation of CAGIB Score for In-hospital Mortality of Cirrhotic Patients With Acute Gastrointestinal Bleeding), which is not on this map. Cited by 9 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT04662918 recruitingnot on this map

Validation of CAGIB Score for In-hospital Mortality of Cirrhotic Patients With Acute Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Prospective, International Multicenter, Observational Study

TypeobservationalSponsorXingshun QiRan2022 to 2025Enrolled3,000ConditionsGastroIntestinal Bleeding
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  7. Observational
  8. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

24 authors.

Zhaohui Bai *Liver Cirrhosis Study Group, Department of Gastroenterology, General Hospital of Northern Theater Command, Shenyang, China.
Su Lin *Liver Research Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China.
Mingyu Sun *Institute of Liver Diseases, Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shanghai, China.
Shanshan Yuan *Department of Gastroenterology, Xi'an Central Hospital, Xi'an, China.
Mariana Barros Marcondes *São Paulo State University (UNESP), Botucatu Medical School, São Paulo, Brazil.
Dapeng Ma *Department of Critical Care Medicine, The Sixth People's Hospital of Dalian, Dalian, China.
Qiang Zhu *Department of Infectious Disease, Shandong Provincial Hospital affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, China.
Yiling LiDepartment of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, China.
Yingli HeDepartment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China.
Cyriac Abby PhilipsDepartment of Clinical and Translational Hepatology, The Liver Institute, Center of Excellence in GI Sciences, Rajagiri Hospital, Kerala, India.
Xiaofeng LiuDepartment of Gastroenterology, The 960th Hospital of Chinese PLA, Jinan, Shandong, China.
Kanokwan PinyopornpanishDepartment of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand.
Lichun ShaoDepartment of Gastroenterology, Air Force Hospital of Northern Theater Command, Shenyang, China.
Nahum Méndez-SánchezMedica Sur Clinic & Foundation, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.
Metin BasaranogluGastroenterology and Hepatology, Bezmialem Vakif University, Istanbul, Turkey.
Yunhai WuDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, The Sixth People's Hospital of Shenyang, Shenyang, China.
Yu ChenDifficult and Complicated Liver Diseases and Artificial Liver Center, Beijing Youan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
Ling YangDivision of Gastroenterology, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
Andrea MancusoMedicina Interna 1, Azienda di Rilievo Nazionale ad Alta Specializzazione Civico-Di Cristina-Benfratelli, Palermo, Italy.
Frank TackeDepartment of Hepatology & Gastroenterology, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Campus Virchow-Klinikum (CVK) and Campus Charité Mitte (CCM), Berlin, Germany.
Bimin LiDepartment of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, China. lbmjx@163.com.
Lei LiuDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Tangdu Hospital, Fourth Military Medical University, Xi'an, China. liulei84207@163.com.
Fanpu JiDepartment of Hepatology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China. jifanpu1979@163.com.
Xingshun QiLiver Cirrhosis Study Group, Department of Gastroenterology, General Hospital of Northern Theater Command, Shenyang, China. xingshunqi@126.com.

Funding

Independent Research Funding of General Hospital of Northern Theater Command ZZKY2024018Outstanding Youth Foundation of Liaoning Province 2022-YQ-07Science and Technology Plan Project of Liaoning Province 2022JH2/101500032The National Key R&D Program of China 2023YFC2507500
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Acute gastrointestinal bleeding (AGIB) is a potentially lethal complication in cirrhosis. In this prospective international multi-center study, the performance of CAGIB score for predicting the risk of in-hospital death in 2467 cirrhotic patients with AGIB was validated. Machine learning (ML) models were established based on CAGIB components, and their area under curves (AUCs) were calculated and compared. Gray zone approach was employed to further stratify the risk of death. In training cohort, the AUC of CAGIB score was 0.789. Among the ML models, the least square support vector machine regression (LS-SVMR) model had the best predictive performance (AUC = 0.986). Patients were further divided into low- (LS-SVMR score <0.084), moderate- (LS-SVMR score 0.084-0.160), and high-risk (LS-SVMR score >0.160) groups with in-hospital mortality of 0.38%, 2.22%, and 64.37%, respectively. Statistical results were retained in validation cohort. LS-SVMR model has an excellent predictive performance for in-hospital death in cirrhotic patients with AGIB (ClinicalTrials.gov; NCT04662918).

Identifiers

PMID40745090
PMCPMC12313868

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.