ReviewEcology and evolution2025
A Conceptual Disease Cycle Model to Link the Size of Past and Future Epidemics.
Review in Ecology and evolution, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Conventional Wisdom Revised in Terms of a Diversity-Uncertainty Model for the Effect of Host Genetic Diversity on Mean Epidemic Size and Its Variability.Ecology and evolution · 2026Review
- A Conceptual Disease Cycle Model to Link the Size of Past and Future Epidemics.Ecology and evolution · 2025Review
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Populations of humans, animals, and plants face ongoing threats from infectious disease epidemics. While host-parasite coevolution plays a central role in shaping these dynamics, epidemics are often studied in isolation. I propose a simple "Disease Cycle" model that connects past and future epidemic sizes within the context of environmental change and evolutionary feedbacks. Drawing on recent evo-epidemiological research, I highlight three key themes: (i) how epidemics influence the strength and direction of natural selection, (ii) how host and parasite diversity shift through evolving resistance and infectivity, and (iii) how genetic diversity in either population may affect future epidemic severity. Although gaps remain, current evidence supports this integrative model. Future research should explore how the Disease Cycle applies to non-model organisms with low coevolutionary potential. This framework encourages a more holistic view of epidemics as dynamic outcomes of host-parasite coevolution.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.