Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40739450›Full record

ArticleWorld journal of pediatrics : WJP2025

Development and validation of a real-time risk prediction model for acute kidney injury in hospitalized pediatric patients.

Chao Zhang, Chen Wang, Qin-Shi Hu, Xi-Ming Xu, Ruo-Hua Yan, Xiao-Lu Nie, Ya-Guang Peng, Hai-Ping Yang, Yao Song, Xue-Jun Yang and 1 more

Abstract readValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in World journal of pediatrics : WJP, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Chao ZhangDepartment of Clinical Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Medicine, National Center for Children Health, Beijing Children's Hospital, Capital Medical University, No.56 Nanlishi Road, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100045, China.
Chen WangDepartment of Clinical Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Medicine, National Center for Children Health, Beijing Children's Hospital, Capital Medical University, No.56 Nanlishi Road, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100045, China.
Qin-Shi HuBig Data Center for Children's Medical Care, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China.
Xi-Ming XuBig Data Center for Children's Medical Care, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China.
Ruo-Hua YanDepartment of Clinical Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Medicine, National Center for Children Health, Beijing Children's Hospital, Capital Medical University, No.56 Nanlishi Road, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100045, China.
Xiao-Lu NieDepartment of Clinical Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Medicine, National Center for Children Health, Beijing Children's Hospital, Capital Medical University, No.56 Nanlishi Road, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100045, China.
Ya-Guang PengDepartment of Clinical Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Medicine, National Center for Children Health, Beijing Children's Hospital, Capital Medical University, No.56 Nanlishi Road, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100045, China.
Hai-Ping YangDepartment of Nephrology, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatric Metabolism and Inflammatory Disease, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, No. 136 Zhongshan Er Road, Yuzhong District, Chongqing, 400014, China.
Yao SongDepartment of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA.
Xue-Jun YangDepartment of Nephrology, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatric Metabolism and Inflammatory Disease, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, No. 136 Zhongshan Er Road, Yuzhong District, Chongqing, 400014, China. bonnie_everything@163.com.
Xiao-Xia PengDepartment of Clinical Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Medicine, National Center for Children Health, Beijing Children's Hospital, Capital Medical University, No.56 Nanlishi Road, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100045, China. pengxiaoxia@bch.com.cn.ORCID 0000-0001-8789-469X

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China 72174128Talent Development Plan for High-level Public Health Technical Personnel Project 2022-2-026
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAcute kidney injury is associated with a prolonged hospital stay and high mortality for pediatric patients. The previous prediction models are based on a pre-defined time window which may affect its feasibility in clinical practice. This study aimed to develop and validate a real-time acute kidney injury risk prediction model for hospitalized pediatric patients.

methodsBased on a retrospective cohort composed of eligible pediatric patients hospitalized in Beijing Children's Hospital and Chongqing Children's Hospital, a machine learning model to predict acute kidney injury occurrence was developed and validated. The prediction model was established using a stacking technique to combine three base learners including XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost. Particle swarm optimization algorithm was used to tune hyperparameters. Next, we assessed the performance of the prediction model using the area under the receiver-operating curve and the area under the precision-recall curve.

resultsA total of 26,671 patients were included (20,967 in the derivation set, 5242 in the internal validation set, and 462 in the external validation set) contributing to 36,828 hospitalizations. The new proposed model had excellent performance for predicting any acute kidney injury within 24 hours. Both the internal [area under the receiver-operating curve (AUROC) was 0.851, area under the precision-recall curve (AUPR) was 0.322] and external validation set (AUROC was 0.869, AUPR was 0.270) approved the model's feasibility in predicting the risk of acute kidney injury.

conclusionThe established risk predicting model can be used for real-time prevention of acute kidney injury in hospitalized pediatric patients.

Indexed as

Acute Kidney InjuryMachine LearningAdolescentChildChild, PreschoolChinaFemaleHospitalizationHumansInfantMaleRetrospective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsROC CurveAcute kidney injuryMachine learningPediatricPredictingPreventionReal-time predictionRisk

Identifiers

PMID40739450
PMCPMC12433335

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.