ArticleCarbon balance and management2025
The impact of the Grain-for-Green Programme on carbon storage in the Upper Yangtze River Basin based on the PLUS-InVEST model.
Article in Carbon balance and management, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Alterations in land use and land cover (LUCC) play a fundamental role in influencing the variability of ecosystem carbon storage. Evaluating how land use dynamics affect carbon sequestration and projecting future carbon storage scenarios are essential steps toward meeting China's dual carbon objectives. In this study, we integrated the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) framework to investigate LUCC dynamics and their implications for carbon storage across the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) between 2000 and 2020. Furthermore, projections of regional carbon storage were made under multiple Grain-for-Green Programme (GFGP) scenarios extending to the year 2040. Our findings indicated that cultivated land (CL), forest land (FL), and grassland (GL) consistently dominated land use composition within the UYRB, collectively occupying approximately 96.45% of the total area throughout 2000-2020. During this period, construction land (CSL) steadily expanded, primarily at the expense of CL. Both CL and GL experienced substantial reductions. Spatially, carbon storage exhibited a decreasing gradient from east to west, with the Jinsha River Basin exhibiting the greatest levels. Carbon storage values over the two decades were recorded at 6.387 × 10¹⁰ t in 2000, 6.382 × 10¹⁰ t in 2005, 6.379 × 10¹⁰ t in 2010, 6.369 × 10¹⁰ t in 2015, and 6.373 × 10¹⁰ t in 2020. Despite a slight recovery between 2015 and 2020, total carbon storage fell by 0.23% (1.438 × 10
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