Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40737859›Full record

ArticleEnvironment international2025

Future temperature-related mortality in Latin American cities under climate change and population scenarios.

Maryia Bakhtsiyarava, Josiah L Kephart, Brisa N Sánchez, M V S Ramarao, Saravanan Arunachalam, Nelson Gouveia, Iryna Dronova, Leah H Schinasi, Usama Bilal, Waleska T Caiaffa and 4 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Environment international, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Maryia BakhtsiyaravaUrban Health Collaborative, Drexel Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Drexel Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, USA. Electronic address: mb4544@drexel.edu.
Josiah L KephartUrban Health Collaborative, Drexel Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Drexel Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, USA. Electronic address: jlk465@drexel.edu.
Brisa N SánchezDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Drexel Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, USA.
M V S RamaraoNational Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, India; Institute for the Environment, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, USA.
Saravanan ArunachalamInstitute for the Environment, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, USA.
Nelson GouveiaDepartment of Preventive Medicine, University of Sao Paulo Medical School, Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Iryna DronovaDepartment of Environmental Science, Policy & Management, University of California, Berkeley, USA; Department of Landscape Architecture & Environmental Planning, University of California, Berkeley, USA.
Leah H SchinasiUrban Health Collaborative, Drexel Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Drexel Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, USA.
Usama BilalUrban Health Collaborative, Drexel Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, USA; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Drexel Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, USA.
Waleska T CaiaffaObservatório de Saúde Urbana de Belo Horizonte, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
Andrea JaffeUrban Health Collaborative, Drexel Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, USA; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Drexel Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, USA.
Ana V Diez RouxUrban Health Collaborative, Drexel Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, USA; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Drexel Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, USA.
Daniel A RodríguezDepartment of City and Regional Planning and Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley, USA.
SALURBAL

Funding

The Health Consequences of Urban ScalingDP5OD026429 · OD · DREXEL UNIVERSITY · PI BILAL, USAMA · 2018 to 2022
$2.7M
NIH HHS DP5 OD026429Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIn Latin America, climate change, urbanization, and an aging population are intensifying health risks from extreme temperatures. To accurately assess future temperature-related mortality impacts, evidence that integrates key demographic factors-such as the dynamics of population age composition, mortality rates, and population size-is essential.

methodsWe projected the impact of nonoptimal temperatures on all-age and age-specific mortality during 2045-2054 for 326 cities in Latin America. Our analysis combined city-level daily mortality counts, gridded temperature data, downscaled and bias-corrected temperature simulations, and demographic data. We projected temperature-mortality impacts under two climate change scenarios while also considering changing population size, age structure, and age-specific mortality rates.

findingsBy 2045-2054, the percentage of heat-attributable deaths under the most extreme temperature scenario will more than double from 0.87 % (95 % CI 0.77, 0.96) to 2.06 % (95% CI 1.80, 2.33), but cold-related mortality will decrease. Population growth and aging will exacerbate heat-related risks and offset reductions in cold-related deaths. For example, changes in population age structure will drive an increase in the heat-related mortality rate of 176% from baseline for a moderate temperature scenario.

interpretationBeyond temperature changes, demographic shifts-particularly population growth and aging-will significantly amplify mid-century temperature impacts on mortality, underscoring the need for targeted climate adaptation and public health strategies.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeMortalityAdolescentAdultAgedCitiesHot TemperatureHumansLatin AmericaMiddle AgedPopulation DynamicsTemperatureClimate changeDemographic changesLatin AmericaPopulation agingTemperature-related mortality

Identifiers

PMID40737859
PMCPMC12467326

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.