Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40737397›Full record

ArticleScience advances2025

Temperature extremes impact mortality and morbidity differently.

Carlos F Gould, Sam Heft-Neal, Alexandra K Heaney, Eran Bendavid, Christopher W Callahan, Mathew V Kiang, Josh Graff Zivin, Marshall Burke

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science advances, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Review
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Observational
  10. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Carlos F GouldSchool of Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7736-3905
Sam Heft-NealCenter on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9129-2365
Alexandra K HeaneySchool of Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
Eran BendavidDepartment of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-8364-4711
Christopher W CallahanDoerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
Mathew V KiangDepartment of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-9198-150X
Josh Graff ZivinGlobal Policy and Strategy, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-0820-4900
Marshall BurkeCenter on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4288-5858

Funding

From Risk to Resilience: Assessing Adverse Birth Outcome Risks and Adaptive Capacity to Fine Soil Dust and Heat Exposures in CaliforniaK01ES036991 · NIEHS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI Alexandra K. Heaney · 2025 to 2026
$324k
NIEHS NIH HHS K01 ES036991
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Increased temperature-related mortality is expected to significantly contribute to future economic damages from climate change, with declines in cold-related deaths outweighed by increases in heat-related deaths. While temperature-mortality relationships are well-documented, the effects of climate change on morbidity are less understood. Using data on emergency department (ED) visits, hospital admissions, mortality, and daily temperatures across California from 2006 to 2017, we find distinct differences in the temperature-response functions of these health outcomes, influenced by age distribution and underlying causes of morbidity and mortality. These differential responses fundamentally shape the burden of future climate change: We project that while future warming will increase ED visits, mortality will decrease due to fewer cold extremes. These results underscore the need to quantify temperature-morbidity responses to fully understand and anticipate the health impacts of climate change and suggest that local declines in mortality due to warming can mask economically meaningful increases in temperature-driven morbidity and health care utilization.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeMortalityTemperatureAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overCaliforniaChildChild, PreschoolEmergency Service, HospitalFemaleHospitalizationHumansInfantMale

Identifiers

PMID40737397
PMCPMC12309665

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.