Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40727685›Full record

ReviewCurrent climate change reports2025

A Review of Abrupt Permafrost Thaw: Definitions, Usage, and a Proposed Conceptual Framework.

Hailey Webb, Matthias Fuchs, Benjamin W Abbott, Thomas A Douglas, Clayton D Elder, Jessica Gilman Ernakovich, Eugenie S Euskirchen, Mathias Göckede, Guido Grosse, Gustaf Hugelius and 14 more

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Current climate change reports, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Net release of COScience advances · 2026
    Article
  5. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

24 authors.

Hailey WebbRenewable and Sustainable Energy Institute, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5500-0214
Matthias FuchsRenewable and Sustainable Energy Institute, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3529-8284
Benjamin W AbbottDepartment of Plant & Wildlife Sciences, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5861-3481
Thomas A DouglasU.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Fort Wainwright, AK 99703 USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1314-1905
Clayton D ElderJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA USA.ORCID 0000-0001-9831-2106
Jessica Gilman ErnakovichCenter for Soil Biogeochemistry and Microbial Ecology, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4493-2489
Eugenie S EuskirchenInstitute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA.ORCID 0000-0002-0848-4295
Mathias GöckedeMax Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany.ORCID 0000-0003-2833-8401
Guido GrosseAlfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Permafrost Research Section, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.ORCID 0000-0001-5895-2141
Gustaf HugeliusDepartment of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0002-8096-1594
Miriam C JonesFlorence Bascom Geoscience Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA 20192 USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6650-7619
Charles KovenEarth Climate & Ecosystems Sciences, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3367-0065
Heather KroppEnvironmental Studies Program, Hamilton College, Clinton, NY USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4258-3393
Emma LathropCenter for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86001 USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3079-588X
WenWen LiSchool of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-5302 USA.ORCID 0000-0003-2237-9499
Michael M LorantyDepartment of Geography, Colgate University, Hamilton, NY USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8851-7386
Susan M NataliWoodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540 USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3010-2994
David OlefeldtDepartment of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-5976-1475
Christina SchädelWoodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540 USA.ORCID 0000-0003-2145-6210
Edward A G SchuurCenter for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86001 USA.ORCID 0000-0002-1096-2436
Oliver SonnentagUniversité de Montréal, Département de Géographie, Montréal, QC H3C 3J7 Canada.ORCID 0000-0001-9333-9721
Jens StraussAlfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Permafrost Research Section, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.ORCID 0000-0003-4678-4982
Anna-Maria VirkkalaWoodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540 USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4877-2918
Merritt R TuretskyRenewable and Sustainable Energy Institute, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0155-8666

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Purpose of Review: We review how 'abrupt thaw' has been used in published studies, compare these definitions to abrupt processes in other Earth science disciplines, and provide a definitive framework for how abrupt thaw should be used in the context of permafrost science. Recent Findings: We address several aspects of permafrost systems necessary for abrupt thaw to occur and propose a framework for classifying permafrost processes as abrupt thaw in the future. Based on a literature review and our collective expertise, we propose that abrupt thaw refers to thaw processes that lead to a substantial persistent environmental change within a few decades. Abrupt thaw typically occurs in ice-rich permafrost but may be initiated in ice-poor permafrost by external factors such as hydrologic change (i.e., increased streamflow, soil moisture fluctuations, altered groundwater recharge) or wildfire. Summary: Permafrost thaw alters greenhouse gas emissions, soil and vegetation properties, and hydrologic flow, threatening infrastructure and the cultures and livelihoods of northern communities. The term 'abrupt thaw' has emerged in scientific discourse over the past two decades to differentiate processes that rapidly impact large depths of permafrost, such as thermokarst, from more gradual, top-down thaw processes that impact centimeters of near-surface permafrost over years to decades. However, there has been no formal definition for abrupt thaw and its use in the scientific literature has varied considerably. Our standardized definition of abrupt thaw offers a path forward to better understand drivers and patterns of abrupt thaw and its consequences for global greenhouse gas budgets, impacts to infrastructure and land-use, and Arctic policy- and decision-making. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40641-025-00204-3.

Indexed as

ArcticBorealClimate feedbacksPermafrost tipping points

Identifiers

PMID40727685
PMCPMC12289745

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.