Enhancing Robustness of Variational Data Assimilation in Chaotic Systems: An α-4DVar Framework with Rényi Entropy and α-Generalized Gaussian Distributions.

Traditional 4-dimensional variational data assimilation methods have limitations due to the Gaussian distribution assumption of observation errors, and the gradient of the objective functional is vulnerable to observation noise and outliers. To address these issues, this paper proposes a non-Gaussian nonlinear data assimilation method called α-4DVar, based on Rényi entropy and the α-generalized Gaussian distribution. By incorporating the heavy-tailed property of Rényi entropy, the objective function and its gradient suitable for non-Gaussian errors are derived, and numerical experiments are conducted using the Lorenz-63 model. Experiments are conducted with Gaussian and non-Gaussian errors as well as different initial guesses to compare the assimilation effects of traditional 4DVar and α-4DVar. The results show that α-4DVar performs as well as traditional method without observational errors. Its analysis field is closer to the truth, with RMSE rapidly dropping to a low level and remaining stable, particularly under non-Gaussian errors. Under different initial guesses, the RMSE of both the background and analysis fields decreases quickly and stabilizes. In conclusion, the α-4DVar method demonstrates significant advantages in handling non-Gaussian observational errors, robustness against noise, and adaptability to various observational conditions, thus offering a more reliable and effective solution for data assimilation.