Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40724403›Full record

ArticleEntropy (Basel, Switzerland)2025

A Forecast Model for COVID-19 Spread Trends Using Blog and GPS Data from Smartphones.

Ryosuke Susuta, Kenta Yamada, Hideki Takayasu, Misako Takayasu

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Entropy (Basel, Switzerland), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Ryosuke SusutaSchool of Computing, Institute of Science Tokyo, 4259 Nagatsuta-cho, Midori-ku, Yokohama 226-8502, Kanagawa, Japan.
Kenta YamadaFaculty of Global and Regional Studies, University of the Ryukyus, 1 Senbaru, Nishihara 903-0213, Okinawa, Japan.
Hideki TakayasuSchool of Computing, Institute of Science Tokyo, 4259 Nagatsuta-cho, Midori-ku, Yokohama 226-8502, Kanagawa, Japan.
Misako TakayasuSchool of Computing, Institute of Science Tokyo, 4259 Nagatsuta-cho, Midori-ku, Yokohama 226-8502, Kanagawa, Japan.ORCID 0000-0002-2467-614X

Funding

Tokyo Institute of Technology, the Tokyo Tech World Research Hub Initiative (WRHI) Program of the Institute of Innovative Research No Number Assigned
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

This study investigates the feasibility of using GPS data and frequency of COVID-19-related blog words to forecast new infection trends through a linear regression analysis. By employing time series' trend decomposition and Spearman's rank correlation, we identify and select a set of significant variables from the GPS and blog data to construct two models: a fixed-period model and a sequential adaptive model that updates with each new wave of infections. Our findings reveal that the adaptive model more effectively captures long-term trends, achieving approximately 90% accuracy in forecasting infection rates seven days in advance. Despite challenges in forecasting exact values, this research demonstrates that combining GPS and blog data through a dynamic, wave-based learning model offers a promising direction for enhancing the forecasting accuracy of COVID-19 spread. This approach has significant implications for public health preparedness.

Indexed as

COVID-19forecastingGPS dataregressionrobust variable selectionsocial media datatrend decomposition

Identifiers

PMID40724403
PMCPMC12294336

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.