ArticleThe Medical journal of Australia2025
Trends in adolescent smoking prevalence before and after the emergence of vaping in Australia: an interrupted time series analysis, 1999-2023.
Article in The Medical journal of Australia, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Patterns of e-cigarette use by sex and age in Thailand: The National Health Examination Survey 2024-2025.Tobacco induced diseases · 2026Article
- Tracking the course of vaping and cigarette smoking across adolescence: the Child to Adult Transition Study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveTo compare adolescent smoking trends in Australia before and after the emergence of e-cigarettes in about 2010, to evaluate the potential impacts of adolescent vaping on smoking prevalence.
designRepeated cross-sectional study.
settingAustralian secondary schools.
participants172 406 students aged 12-17 years who took part in the Australian Secondary Students' Alcohol and Drug Survey between 1999 and 2023.
main outcome measuresPrevalence of ever, past year, past month and past week smoking for 12-17-year-olds, and daily smoking for 14-15-year-olds.
resultsFrom 2014 to 2022-2023, the prevalence of ever vaping among students increased 2.3-fold (from 13.2% to 29.9%), while past month vaping increased 4.8-fold (from 3.3% to 15.7%). From 1999 to 2022-2023, there were substantial declines in the prevalence of ever, past year, past month, past week and daily smoking among students, with reductions ranging between 74% and 89%. However, the rates of decline for these five measures of smoking slowed significantly from 2010 onwards, coinciding with the emergence of vaping. By 2022-2023, there were, respectively, 74 (95% confidence interval [CI], 67-80), 54 (95% CI, 48-60), 25 (95% CI, 21-29) and 16 (95% CI, 12-19) more 12-17-year-olds per 1000, and 7 (95% CI, 4-9) more 14-15-year-olds per 1000 who had engaged in ever, past year, past month, past week and daily smoking than projected by smoking trajectories from the pre-vaping era. These findings were robust to sensitivity analyses, including the use of different time series interruption points (change-years) and controlling for the affordability of cigarettes.
conclusionAustralia's remarkable progress in reducing adolescent smoking has slowed since the emergence of vaping, underscoring the need for integrated tobacco and vaping control strategies.
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