ArticleEmerging infectious diseases2025
Estimated COVID-19 Periodicity and Correlation with SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein S1 Antigenic Diversity, United States.
Article in Emerging infectious diseases, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Genomic Characterization and Evolutionary Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage NB.1.8.1 in Thailand, 2025.Viruses · 2026Article
- Seasonal forcing and waning immunity drive the sub-annual periodicity of the COVID-19 epidemic.PLoS pathogens · 2026Article
- Uncovering the post-pandemic timing of influenza, RSV, and COVID-19 driving seasonal influenza-like illness in the United States: a retrospective ecological study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026Article
- COVID-19 Versus Influenza Hospitalizations in Late 2025 in Poland: A Multicenter Retrospective Comparison.Vaccines · 2026Article
- Respiratory Virus Activity - United States, July 1, 2024-June 30, 2025.MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report · 2026Article
- Article
- Excess primary healthcare consultations in Norway in 2024 compared to pre-COVID-19-pandemic baseline trends.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026Article
- Detailed investigation of B cell populations following vaccination and infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 during pregnancy.Frontiers in immunology · 2026Article
- Wastewater-based epidemiology reveals spatiotemporal dynamics and diurnal temperature range effects on post-pandemic SARS-CoV-2 infection burden in Chongqing, China.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Comparative evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 laboratory testing data sources for U.S. COVID-19 public health surveillance, 2020-2024.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
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8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Emergence of antigenically diverse SARS-CoV-2 variants may be correlated with temporal circulation patterns. We analyzed positive SARS-CoV-2 tests in the United States reported to a national, laboratory-based surveillance network and unique amino acid sequences of the S1 region of the spike protein reported to national genomic surveillance during October 2020-September 2024. We estimated SARS-CoV-2 dominant periodicities using a discrete Fourier transform, described S1 variation using the Simpson diversity index (SDI), and estimated Spearman cross-correlation coefficients between percentage change in SDI and percentage positivity. SARS-CoV-2 activity consistently peaked during July-September and December-February, and dominant periodicities were at weeks 52.2 and 26.1. Percentage positivity and percentage change in SDI were negatively correlated (ρ = -0.30; p<0.001). SARS-CoV-2 peaks occurred in late summer and winter, a pattern likely related to rapid SARS-CoV-2 evolution and cyclical diversity. Monitoring associations between percentage positivity and SDI can help forecast expected surges and optimize prevention and preparedness.
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