ArticleBMJ global health2025
Forecasting global progress in breast cancer control in the context of the sustainable development goals.
Article in BMJ global health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionThe United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (UN-SDG) 3.4 aims to reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases, including breast cancer, by one-third by 2030 relative to 2015. However, many countries, particularly those with lower income, appear off track. Although mortality rates are commonly used to gauge progress, mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) may provide additional insight by accounting for varying incidence and the effectiveness of cancer control measures.
methodsWe obtained age-standardised breast cancer incidence and mortality rates for women aged 30-69 years from 2000 to 2019, covering 199 countries stratified by World Bank income groups (low, lower middle, upper middle and high) from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. Using vector autoregressive time-series analyses, we modelled and forecasted income-level and county-level mortality rates and MIRs for female breast cancer from 2020 to 2030.
resultsFrom 2015 to 2030, breast cancer mortality is projected to increase by 22.8% and 7.8% in low-income and lower middle-income countries, while decreasing by 10% and 5.4% in upper middle-income and high-income countries. MIR is projected to decrease across all income groups, with the most significant reductions seen in lower income countries, highlighting incremental improvements in breast cancer control initiatives. Only nine countries, predominantly higher income, are expected to achieve the one-third mortality reduction target. Despite MIR improvements in lower income countries, substantial mortality reductions remain elusive.
conclusionRelying solely on mortality underestimates progress in breast cancer control. Although most countries are unlikely to meet the SDG 3.4 target, concurrent use of mortality and MIR provides a more nuanced understanding of screening, diagnosis and treatment advances. Integrating MIR trends into global health evaluations may better inform breast cancer prevention strategies.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.