Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40699231›Full record

ArticleEuropean archives of oto-rhino-laryngology : official journal of the European Federation of Oto-Rhino-Laryngological Societies (EUFOS) : affiliated with the German Society for Oto-Rhino-Laryngology - Head and Neck Surgery2025

Development and validation of a clinical risk prediction model for chronic sinusitis with nasal polyps: a retrospective analysis.

Dawei Li, Shuang Guo, Shihui Cui, Jingbo Yu, Zhaoqi Liu, Kunrong Wang, Guoxi Zheng

Abstract readValidation Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in European archives of oto-rhino-laryngology : official journal of the European Federation of Oto-Rhino-Laryngological Societies (EUFOS) : affiliated with the German Society for Oto-Rhino-Laryngology - Head and Neck Surgery, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Dawei Li *Department of Otolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xian Jiaotong University, Xi´an, 710000, Shaanxi, China.
Shuang Guo *Department of Otolaryngology, The Third People's Hospital Affillated of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, China.
Shihui CuiDepartment of Otolaryngology, The Third People's Hospital Affillated of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, China.
Jingbo YuDepartment of Otolaryngology, The Third People's Hospital Affillated of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, China.
Zhaoqi LiuDepartment of Otolaryngology, The Third People's Hospital Affillated of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, China.
Kunrong WangDepartment of Otolaryngology, The Third People's Hospital Affillated of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, China.
Guoxi ZhengDepartment of Otolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xian Jiaotong University, Xi´an, 710000, Shaanxi, China. zhengguoxi888@sina.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2513-6903

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectThis study aims to explore risk factors associated with chronic sinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP) by analyzing the clinical pathophysiological factors in chronic sinusitis (CRS) patients.

methodsGeneral information of 206 CRS patients was collected along with Visual Analog Scale (VAS), snot score, Lund Kennedy and Lund Mackay assessments. Univariate analysis was performed to select variables for multivariate regression. Optimal model was selected by Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to identify key risk factors. LASSO algorithm was used to determine the final variables, then a nomogram was constructed. The nomogram scores were assigned via an integral line and a total score was calculated, and risks were predicted based on the probability scale. Model quality was assessed using the ROC curve. The calibration curve was employed to compare predicted versus actual risks, and the Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the model's clinical utility.

resultsSignificant differences exist between groups regarding height, alcohol consumption, bronchial asthma, nasal septum deviation, eosinophil ratio, LM score, and LK score. LASSO analysis revealed alcohol consumption, allergic rhinitis, deviated nasal septum, bacterial culture, LM score, and LK score as risks. AUC (0.96) and 95% CI (0.915-1.0) indicated good model accuracy. Calibration curve showed that predicted probability closely aligned with perfect agreement, and DCA indicated a broad effective range for clinical applicability.

conclusionOur study revealed significant risks for nasal polyps, including alcohol consumption, allergic rhinitis, deviated nasal septum, positive bacterial cultures, LM score, and LK score. The constructed model showed satisfactory prediction of CRSwNPs.

Indexed as

Nasal PolypsSinusitisAdultChronic DiseaseFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedNomogramsRetrospective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsROC CurveChronic sinusitisCRSwNPNasal polypsPrediction model

Identifiers

PMID40699231
PMCPMC12399449

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.