Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40698753›Full record

ArticleAustralasian journal on ageing2025

Older Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations living with dementia: State and territory scenario-based projections into the future.

Joanne Luke, Jeromey Temple, Tom Wilson, Ruth Williams, Sean Taylor, Dina LoGiudice

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Article in Australasian journal on ageing, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Joanne LukeDemography, Centre for Health Policy, School of Population and Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7967-3309
Jeromey TempleDemography, Centre for Health Policy, School of Population and Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2819-2863
Tom WilsonDemography, Centre for Health Policy, School of Population and Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Ruth WilliamsDemography, Centre for Health Policy, School of Population and Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Sean TaylorOnemda: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health and Wellbeing Unit, School of Population and Global Health & Melbourne School of Health Science, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Dina LoGiudiceDepartment of Medicine and Aged Care, The Royal Melbourne Hospital, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0391-3898

Funding

Australian Research Council Centre Excellence in Population Ageing ResearchNational Health and Medical Research Council
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo produce plausible estimates of the number of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander people living with dementia within Australia disaggregated by state and territory to mid-century.

methodsThe Wilson-Grossman variation of the Hamilton-Perry projection model was used to prepare state and territory projections of the Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander population, 2021-2051. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census (2021) and Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2021 were used to estimate the number of people living with dementia 2021-2051.

resultsFrom 2021 to 2051, the Australian Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander population is projected to grow across all states and territories. By 2051, there will be an increasing number and proportion of the population aged over 45, 65 and 80 years, with this increase varying by jurisdiction. This pattern of ageing will see an increase in the number of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander people living with dementia, regardless of assumptions about future dementia prevalence. This increase will vary in magnitude by juristiction, doubling in the Northern Territory and increasing more than fivefold in the Australian Capital Terrritory, New South Wales, Tasmania and Queensland. Sensitivity analyses of alternative dementia scenarios produce highly similar results.

conclusionsBetween 2021 and 2051, the estimated number of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander people living with dementia is projected to increase. Combined with regional demographic variations, this trend highlights the urgent need for targeted responses at both local and national levels.

Indexed as

AgingDementiaAgedAged, 80 and overAge FactorsAustraliaAustralian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander PeoplesFemaleForecastingHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrevalenceTime FactorsageingAustralian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoplesdementiaIndigenous peoples

Identifiers

PMID40698753
PMCPMC12285214

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