ArticleWorld journal of diabetes2025
Predictive model and risk analysis for outcomes in diabetic foot ulcer using eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm and SHapley Additive exPlanation.
Article in World journal of diabetes, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Advances in the application of artificial intelligence-driven multi-modal imaging technologies in the comprehensive diagnosis and treatment of diabetic foot ulcers.Reviews in endocrine & metabolic disorders · 2026Review
- Benefits of Multi-Disciplinary Limb Preservation Teams.Clinics in podiatric medicine and surgery · 2026Review
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3 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundDiabetic foot ulcer (DFU) is a serious and destructive complication of diabetes, which has a high amputation rate and carries a huge social burden. Early detection of risk factors and intervention are essential to reduce amputation rates. With the development of artificial intelligence technology, efficient interpretable predictive models can be generated in clinical practice to improve DFU care.
aimTo develop and validate an interpretable model for predicting amputation risk in DFU patients.
methodsThis retrospective study collected basic data from 599 patients with DFU in Beijing Shijitan Hospital between January 2015 and June 2024. The data set was randomly divided into a training set and test set with fivefold cross-validation. Three binary variable models were built with the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm to input risk factors that predict amputation probability. The model performance was optimized by adjusting the super parameters. The predictive performance of the three models was expressed by sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and area under the curve (AUC). Visualization of the prediction results was realized through SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP).
resultsA total of 157 (26.2%) patients underwent minor amputation during hospitalization and 50 (8.3%) had major amputation. All three XGBoost models demonstrated good discriminative ability, with AUC values > 0.7. The model for predicting major amputation achieved the highest performance [AUC = 0.977, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.956-0.998], followed by the minor amputation model (AUC = 0.800, 95%CI: 0.762-0.838) and the non-amputation model (AUC = 0.772, 95%CI: 0.730-0.814). Feature importance ranking of the three models revealed the risk factors for minor and major amputation. Wagner grade 4/5, osteomyelitis, and high C-reactive protein were all considered important predictive variables.
conclusionXGBoost effectively predicts diabetic foot amputation risk and provides interpretable insights to support personalized treatment decisions.
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