Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40696488›Full record

ArticleGlobal health research and policy2025

Global, regional, and country-specific lifetime risks of osteoarthritis, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021.

Xinge Zhang, Chuiguo Huang, Zhaolan Hu, Yejun Tan, Pengfei Wang, Lemei Zhu, Jin Kang

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Article in Global health research and policy, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

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4citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

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3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Xinge Zhang *Department of Rheumatology and Immunology, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha, 410011, China.
Chuiguo Huang *Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China.
Zhaolan HuDepartment of Anesthesiology, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, 410011, Hunan, China.
Yejun TanSchool of Mathematics, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Pengfei WangDepartment of Anesthesiology, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, 410011, Hunan, China.
Lemei ZhuSchool of Public Health, Changsha Medical University, Changsha, 410219, Hunan, China.
Jin KangDepartment of Rheumatology and Immunology, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha, 410011, China. kangjin2015@csu.edu.cn.

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China 82271379Open Project of Guangxi Key Laboratory of reproductive health and birth defect prevention GXWCH-ZDKF-2023-01Science Foundation of Hunan province for Distinguished Young Scholars 2023JJ10088Science Foundation of Hunan province for Young Scholars 2024JJ6597
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundOsteoarthritis (OA) is a leading cause of disability worldwide, yet global estimates of lifetime risk remain limited. This study aims to provide comprehensive global, regional, and national lifetime risk estimates for OA, including knee, hand, and hip subtypes, from 1990 to 2021.

methodsUsing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, we estimated the lifetime risk of developing OA from age 20 onwards, stratified by sex, location, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Average annual percentage change (AAPC) was also calculated. Spatial heterogeneity in 2021 lifetime risks and their AAPCs was evaluated using the Factor Detector of the Geographic Detector method, with q-statistics quantifying the explanatory power of demographic, socioeconomic, health system and OA-related risk factors.

resultsIn 2021, the global lifetime risk of OA was 14.21% (95% confidence interval: 14.21%, 14.22%), with knee OA at 9.31% (95% CI: 9.31%, 9.32%), hand OA at 3.45% (95% CI: 3.45%, 3.46%), and hip OA at 0.71% (95% CI: 0.71%, 0.71%). Lifetime risk increased with higher socio-demographic Index (SDI), from 11.62% in low-SDI regions to 16.10% in high-SDI regions. The highest risk was observed in the High-income Asia Pacific region (18.10%), led by the Republic of Korea (21.20%). Between 1990 and 2021, global lifetime OA risk increased with an AAPC of 0.30% (95% CI: 0.30%, 0.30%), with the most notable increases in East Asia (AAPC: 0.53%). Spatial heterogeneity analysis revealed that the historical proportions employed in agriculture and with upper secondary education had the strongest associations with 2021 lifetime risks and their trends (q-statistics up to 0.84), followed by life expectancy, SDI, and health-system indicators.

conclusionsIn 2021, 1 in 7 individuals globally were projected to develop OA, with the highest risks in high-SDI regions. The steady rise in OA risk, especially in East Asia, highlights the need for targeted public health strategies that focus on prevention, early diagnosis, and ensuring equitable access to treatment to mitigate the increasing OA burden.

Indexed as

Global Burden of DiseaseGlobal HealthOsteoarthritisAdultAgedFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedOsteoarthritis, HipOsteoarthritis, KneeRisk FactorsSocioeconomic FactorsYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID40696488
PMCPMC12281868

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