Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40691800›Full record

ArticleBMC medicine2025

Development and recalibration of a multivariable type 1 diabetes prediction model for type 1 diabetes across multiple screening studies.

Erin L Templeman, Lauric A Ferrat, Hemang M Parikh, Lu You, Taylor M Triolo, Andrea K Steck, William A Hagopian, Kendra Vehik, Suna Onengut-Gumuscu, Peter A Gottlieb and 5 more

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In one paragraph

Article in BMC medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
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  5. Review
  6. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Erin L TemplemanDepartment of Clinical and Biomedical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Lauric A FerratDepartment of Clinical and Biomedical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Hemang M ParikhHealth Informatics Institute, Morsani College of Medicine, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA.
Lu YouHealth Informatics Institute, Morsani College of Medicine, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA.
Taylor M TrioloDavis Center for Diabetes, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO, USA.
Andrea K SteckDavis Center for Diabetes, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO, USA.
William A HagopianIndiana University School of Medicine, Indiana, IN, USA.
Kendra VehikHealth Informatics Institute, Morsani College of Medicine, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA.
Suna Onengut-GumuscuDepartment of Genome Sciences, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Peter A GottliebPacific Northwest Research Institute, Seattle, WA, USA.
Stephen S RichDepartment of Genome Sciences, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Jeffrey P KrischerHealth Informatics Institute, Morsani College of Medicine, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA.
Maria J Redondo *Baylor College of Medicine, Texas Children's Hospital, Houston, TX, USA.
Richard A Oram *Department of Clinical and Biomedical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK. R.Oram@exeter.ac.uk.
Type 1 diabetes TrialNet Study Group

Funding

Revision to the Coordinating Center for Type 1 Diabetes TrialNetU01DK106993 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA · PI JEFFREY P KRISCHER, SAMUEL S WU · 2019 to 2026
$181.3M
Data Coordinating Center for Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet (UC4)USF: TrialNet UC4-3UC4DK117009 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA · PI KRISCHER, JEFFREY P · 2017 to 2019
$49.6M
Vector and Transgenic Mouse CoreP30DK017047 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI Tomas Vaisar · 1986 to 2026
$41.4M
NIDDK Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Data Coordinating CenterUC4DK106993 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA · PI KRISCHER, JEFFREY P · 2015 to 2015
$36.6M
Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Clinical Network HubU01DK103282 · NIDDK · BENAROYA RESEARCH INST AT VIRGINIA MASON · PI CARLA J GREENBAUM, KURT J GRIFFIN · 2014 to 2026
$14.2M
Northwest Clinical Center for Type 1 Diabetes - TrialNetU01DK061034 · NIDDK · BENAROYA RESEARCH INST AT VIRGINIA MASON · PI GREENBAUM, CARLA J · 2001 to 2018
$10.3M
Type I Diabetes Trialnet at StsnfordU01DK061042 · NIDDK · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI WILSON, DARRELL M · 2001 to 2018
$8.5M
UCSF Trialnet: A Phase II Trial of Imatimib in New Onset Type I DiabetesU01DK061010 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI GITELMAN, STEPHEN E · 2001 to 2018
$8.1M
Type 1 Diabetes-A Proposal for Prevention & InterventionU01DK085476 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA · PI MORAN, ANTOINETTE M. · 2009 to 2018
$7.1M
Prediction and Prevention of Type I DiabetesU01DK061058 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI BECKER, DOROTHY J · 2001 to 2018
$6.5M
TrialNet: University of Florida Clinical Center and NetworkU01DK085461 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA · PI HALLER, MICHAEL JAMES · 2009 to 2018
$5.9M
TrialNet: Diabetes Type 1 PreventionU01DK085509 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO DENVER · PI GOTTLIEB, PETER A · 2009 to 2018
$5.8M
Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation United Kingdom 3-SRA-2019-827-S-BNIDDK NIH HHS K23 DK136931NIDDK NIH HHS P30 DK017047NIDDK NIH HHS R01 DK121843NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK061010NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK061034NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK061042NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK061058NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK085461NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK085465NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK085466NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK085476NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK085499NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK085509NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK103153NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK103180NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK103266NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK103282NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK106984NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK106993NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK106994NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK107013NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK107014NIDDK NIH HHS UC4 DK106993NIDDK NIH HHS UC4 DK117009NIH HHS K23 DK136931NIH HHS R01 DK121843
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAccurate type 1 diabetes prediction is important to facilitate screening for pre-clinical type 1 diabetes to enable potential early disease-modifying interventions and to reduce the risk of severe presentation with diabetic ketoacidosis. We aimed to assess the generalisability of a prediction model developed in children followed from birth. Additionally, we sought to create an application for easy calculation and visualisation of individualised risk prediction.

methodsWe developed and internally validated a stratified prediction model combining a genetic risk score, age, islet autoantibodies, and family history using data from children followed since birth by The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study. We tested the validity of the model through external validation in the Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study, which conducts cross-sectional screening in relatives of people with type 1 diabetes. We recalibrated the model by adjusting for baseline risk and selection criteria in TrialNet using logistic recalibration to improve calibration across all ages.

resultsThe study included 7798 TEDDY and 4068 TrialNet participants, with 305 (4%) and 1373 (34%) developing type 1 diabetes, respectively. The stratified model showed similar discriminative ability in autoantibody-positive participants across TEDDY and TrialNet, but inferior calibration in TrialNet (Brier score 0.40 [95% CI 0.38,0.43]). Adjustment for baseline risk and selection criteria in TrialNet using logistic recalibration improved calibration across all ages (Brier score 0.16 [0.14,0.17]; p < 0.001). A web calculator was developed to visualise individual risk estimates ( https://t1dpredictor.diabetesgenes.org ).

conclusionsA stratified model incorporating the type 1 diabetes genetic risk score, family history, age, and autoantibody status can predict type 1 diabetes risk with improved accuracy, but may need recalibration depending on the screening strategy.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1Mass ScreeningAdolescentAutoantibodiesChildChild, PreschoolCross-Sectional StudiesFemaleHumansMaleRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsAutoantibodiesAdjustmentAutoantibodyFDRGeneticsPredictionRecalibrationType 1 diabetes

Identifiers

PMID40691800
PMCPMC12281708

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.