ArticleEnvironmental health and preventive medicine2025
Association between outdoor temperature and bath-related drowning deaths in Japan (1995-2020): modifying factors and the role of prefectural characteristics.
Article in Environmental health and preventive medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Acute Heat Exposure-Related Illness: A Unified Emergency Medicine Framework for Hot Baths, Hot Springs, and Saunas-A Narrative Review.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Review
- Forecasting daily bathtub-drowning mortality in Japan: a comparative analysis of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundOlder adults in Japan have the highest drowning mortality rate globally due to frequent bathing practices. Low outdoor temperatures have been linked to bath-related deaths; however, previous studies employed limited statistical models and focused on a single prefecture. Given Japan's aging population, preventing bath-related deaths is a public health priority. This study aimed to analyze the association between outdoor temperature and bath-related drowning deaths across Japan from 1995 to 2020 (n = 110,938), examining regional variations and identifying contributing prefectural characteristics.
methodsDaily counts of bath-related drowning deaths per prefecture were matched with daily mean temperature data from the Japan Meteorological Agency. Prefecture-level demographic and environmental data were obtained from Japan's Official Statistics. We applied a generalized additive mixed model to examine the association between daily mean temperature and bath-related drowning death risk. Meta-regression was used to identify prefecture-level modifiers.
resultsBath-related drowning death risk peaked at a daily mean temperature of 1.8 °C (relative risk [RR] 9.7, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 9.5-9.9), compared with the lowest risk at 30.3 °C. The association was stronger at mid-range temperatures, particularly among males and individuals aged ≥65 years. Among prefectures, Kagoshima-the southernmost prefecture on Japan's main islands-had the highest maximum RR at 19.6 (95% CI: 16.2-23.6), while Hokkaido-the northernmost prefecture-had the lowest at 3.8 (95% CI: 3.4-4.3). Prefecture-level factors that strengthened this relationship included a lower prevalence of double-pane windows as a proxy of housing insulation and higher annual mean temperatures with ratio of RR change per one standard deviation increase of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.69-0.83) and 1.27 (95% CI: 1.18-1.37), respectively.
conclusionsWarmer prefectures in southern regions exhibited greater maximum-to-minimum risk ratios compared to cooler northern prefectures. This paradoxical finding underscores the importance of region-specific interventions to reduce bath-related deaths.
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