ArticlePloS one2025
Development and temporal validation of a nomogram for predicting ICU 28-day mortality in middle-aged and elderly sepsis patients: An eICU database study.
Article in PloS one, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Efficacy of 3D-printed bone graft container in the treatment of tibial plateau fractures and postoperative rehabilitation prediction model.BMC surgery · 2026Article
- Research progress on the mechanism of FOXO protein in sepsis.Apoptosis : an international journal on programmed cell death · 2026Review
- 28-Day Mortality and Prognostic Factors in COPD Patients with Sepsis: A Retrospective Study Using eICU-CRD Database.International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · 2026Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND AND
objectiveDespite advances in intensive care, sepsis remains a leading cause of mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) patients, especially middle-aged and elderly individuals. Given the limitations of conventional scoring systems and the interpretability challenges of machine learning models, this study aims to develop and temporally validate a nomogram for predicting 28-day ICU mortality in middle-aged and elderly sepsis patients via the eICU database (2014--2015), providing a clinically practical prediction tool.
methodsThis retrospective study included 13,717 sepsis patients aged ≥45 years. The cohort was temporally divided into training (n = 6,397, 2014) and validation (n = 7,320, 2015) sets. Variable selection was performed via random forest importance ranking and LASSO regression. A nomogram was developed on the basis of multivariable logistic regression analysis.
resultsThe 28-day ICU mortality rates were 9.08% and 9.49% in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The final nomogram incorporated 11 independent predictors: red cell distribution width (RDW), SOFA score, lactate, pH, 24-hour urine output, platelet count, total protein, temperature, heart rate, GCS score, and white blood cell (WBC) count. The model showed good discrimination in both the training (AUC: 0.805) and validation (AUC: 0.756) cohorts. The calibration curves demonstrated good agreement between the predicted and observed probabilities.
conclusionsWe developed and temporally validated a nomogram with good predictive performance for 28-day ICU mortality in middle-aged and elderly sepsis patients, providing a practical tool for risk stratification and clinical decision-making.
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