Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40688166›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet regional health. Western Pacific2025

Quantifying the contributions of cardiovascular risk factors to cardiovascular disease trends in 21st century Japan: a microsimulation study.

Soshiro Ogata, Eri Kiyoshige, Yusuke Yoshikawa, Koji Iihara, Hitoshi Fukuda, Masanobu Ishii, Kenichi Tsujita, Anna Head, Brendan Collins, Martin O'Flaherty and 2 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Soshiro OgataDepartment of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Osaka, 564-8565, Japan.
Eri KiyoshigeDepartment of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Osaka, 564-8565, Japan.
Yusuke YoshikawaDepartment of Biostatistics, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Osaka, 564-8565, Japan.
Koji IiharaNational Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center Hospital, Suita, Osaka, 564-8565, Japan.
Hitoshi FukudaDepartment of Neurosurgery, Kochi Medical School, Nankoku, Kochi, 783-8505, Japan.
Masanobu IshiiDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kumamoto University, Kumamoto, Kumamoto, 860-8556, Japan.
Kenichi TsujitaDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kumamoto University, Kumamoto, Kumamoto, 860-8556, Japan.
Anna HeadDepartment of Public Health, Policy and Systems, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3GF, United Kingdom.
Brendan CollinsDepartment of Public Health, Policy and Systems, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3GF, United Kingdom.
Martin O'FlahertyDepartment of Public Health, Policy and Systems, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3GF, United Kingdom.
Kunihiro NishimuraDepartment of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Osaka, 564-8565, Japan.
Chris KypridemosDepartment of Public Health, Policy and Systems, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3GF, United Kingdom.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Recent stagnation or worsening trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, including low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) and obesity, might slow the decline in Japan's CVD burden. We aimed to quantify the impact of national changes in CVD risk factor distributions on Japan's CVD burden from 2001 to 2019. Methods: We conducted a microsimulation study with counterfactual analysis using IMPACT Findings: From 2001 to 2019, systolic blood pressure (SBP) and smoking declined markedly (men/women) by 6·8/7·2 mmHg and 18·4/6·8%, respectively, while LDL-c, HbA1c, body mass index (BMI), physical activity (PA), and fruit/vegetable (FV) consumption showed smaller or adverse trends. Under the base-case and counterfactual scenarios, IMPACT Interpretation: SBP and smoking reductions drove most CVD burden declines in Japan (2001-2019). Modest benefits came from LDL-c and HbA1c, while rising BMI, and low PA and FV intake partly offset these benefits. Funding: JSPS KAKENHIJP22K17821, JP25K02863; the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Comprehensive Research on Life-Style Related 22FA1015, 24FA1015.

Indexed as

All-cause deathsCardiovascular risk factorsCoronary heart diseaseIndirect costsJapanMedical costsMicrosimulation studyPublic healthQuality-adjusted life yearsStrokeThe national burdens of cardiovascular disease

Identifiers

PMID40688166
PMCPMC12274934

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.