ArticlePreventive medicine reports2025
Trend analysis and epidemiological forecasting of colorectal Cancer mortality among reproductive-age women in sub-Saharan Africa.
Article in Preventive medicine reports, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Objective: In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the region with the highest fertility rates globally, colorectal cancer (CRC) is emerging as a major public health challenge for women of childbearing age. This study aimed to analyze CRC mortality trends, identify key driving factors, and predict future mortality patterns among women of childbearing age in SSA. Methods: We assessed CRC mortality among women of childbearing age across four SSA subregions and 46 countries, calculating age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). The Das Gupta decomposition method quantified the contributions of aging, population growth, and epidemiological changes. A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model projected mortality trends from 2022 to 2040, and an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model were used for sensitivity analysis. Results: From 1990 to 2021, CRC mortality rose significantly in Eastern and Western SSA. In 2021, Southern SSA had the highest ASMR and fastest growth (EAPC = 1.63), while Western SSA had the lowest ASMR. The mortality in Nigeria and Zimbabwe are of particular concern. The region exhibited an overall upward trend in CRC mortality alongside increasing Socio-demographic index. Population growth was the primary driver of increasing mortality across the four subregions and 45 countries. Projections indicated that ASMR will rise in Central and Western SSA but decline in Eastern and Southern SSA by 2040. Conclusions: Population growth is a crucial factor driving the CRC mortality of women of childbearing age in SSA. Regional disparities reflected varying epidemiological transitions and healthcare capacities. Screening programs and cancer registries are key to reducing future burdens.
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