Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40682759›Full record

ArticleEndocrine2025

Global epidemiology of type 1 diabetes in youth: 1990-2021 and projections to 2045.

Kexin Zhang, Chengxia Kan, Fang Han, Yanhui Ma, Yuqun Wang, Xuan Li, Guoji Xiong, Jinyan Chen, Xiao Yu, Ningning Hou and 1 more

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Article in Endocrine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Kexin ZhangDepartment of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Clinical Research Center, Affiliated Hospital of Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, China.
Chengxia KanDepartment of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Clinical Research Center, Affiliated Hospital of Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, China.
Fang HanDepartment of Pathology, Affiliated Hospital of Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, China.
Yanhui MaDepartment of Pathology, Affiliated Hospital of Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, China.
Yuqun WangDepartment of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Clinical Research Center, Affiliated Hospital of Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, China.
Xuan LiDepartment of Physiology and Biophysics, University of Mississippi Medical Center, Jackson, MS, USA.
Guoji XiongDepartment of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Clinical Research Center, Affiliated Hospital of Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, China.
Jinyan ChenDepartment of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Clinical Research Center, Affiliated Hospital of Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, China.
Xiao YuDepartment of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Clinical Research Center, Affiliated Hospital of Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, China.
Ningning HouDepartment of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Clinical Research Center, Affiliated Hospital of Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, China. ningning.hou@sdsmu.edu.cn.
Xiaodong SunDepartment of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Clinical Research Center, Affiliated Hospital of Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, China. xiaodong.sun@sdsmu.edu.cn.ORCID 0000-0001-7775-2823

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China 82170865, 82370856
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimsThis study examines the global burden of type 1 diabetes (T1D) among adolescents and young adults (15-39 years) from 1990-2021, with projections to 2045.

methodsUsing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, we analyzed T1D prevalence, incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and annual percent change (AAPC), with regional and gender differences.

resultsIn 2021, global T1D prevalence among 15-39-year-olds was 7.34 million cases (95% UI: 5.94-9.00 million), with males accounting for 50.66%. Incidence was 196,104 cases (141,606-277,782), with 55.31% males. From 1990-2021, prevalence increased from 200.11-246.89 per 100,000 (AAPC 0.68), and incidence rose from 5.10-6.59 per 100,000 (AAPC 0.83). In 2021, there were 16,135 deaths and 1.40 million DALYs, with 54.94% attributed to males. Death rates decreased (AAPC -0.35). Middle SDI regions had the highest prevalence (1.86 million) and incidence (54,541), while high SDI areas had the highest rates. Low-middle SDI areas had the most deaths (5170) and DALYs (419,772). South Asia had the highest prevalence (1.73 million), incidence (46,310), deaths (5189), and DALYs (413,293). India, the USA, and China had the highest prevalence and incidence, while Finland, Canada, and Italy had the highest rates. By 2045, T1D incidence is projected to reach 571,556 cases, predominantly affecting those aged 15-19 years.

conclusionThe rising burden of T1D among adolescents and young adults underscores the need for targeted interventions and healthcare policies, particularly in high-risk regions.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1AdolescentAdultDisability-Adjusted Life YearsFemaleGlobal Burden of DiseaseGlobal HealthHumansIncidenceMalePrevalenceYoung AdultAdolescentsEpidemiologyGlobal burden of diseaseProjectionsType 1 diabetesYoung adults

Identifiers

PMID40682759

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.