Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40681488›Full record

ArticleNature communications2025

Comprehensive interaction modeling with machine learning improves prediction of disease risk in the UK Biobank.

Heli Julkunen, Juho Rousu

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Explainable Plasma Proteomics-Based Machine Learning for Osteoporosis Diagnosis, Prognosis, and Protein Biomarker Discovery in the UK Biobank.FASEB journal : official publication of the Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology · 2026
    Article
  2. Classification of Alcohol Use Disorder With Explainable AI.Alcohol, clinical & experimental research · 2026
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Heli JulkunenDepartment of Computer Science, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland. heli.julkunen@aalto.fi.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4282-0248
Juho RousuDepartment of Computer Science, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0705-4314

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Understanding how risk factors interact to jointly influence disease risk can provide insights into disease development and improve risk prediction. Here we introduce survivalFM, a machine learning extension to the widely used Cox proportional hazards model that enables scalable estimation of all potential pairwise interaction effects on time-to-event outcomes. The method approximates interaction effects using a low-rank factorization, allowing it to overcome the computational and statistical limitations typically associated with high-dimensional interaction modeling. Applied to the UK Biobank dataset across nine disease examples and diverse clinical and omics risk factors, survivalFM improves prediction performance in terms of discrimination, explained variation, and reclassification in 30.6%, 41.7%, and 94.4% of the scenarios tested, respectively. In a clinical cardiovascular risk prediction scenario using the established QRISK3 model, the method adds predictive value by identifying interactions beyond the age interaction effects currently included. These results demonstrate that comprehensive modeling of interactions can facilitate advanced insights into disease development and improve risk predictions.

Indexed as

Biological Specimen BanksCardiovascular DiseasesMachine LearningAgedFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedProportional Hazards ModelsRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsUK BiobankUnited Kingdom

Identifiers

PMID40681488
PMCPMC12274440

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.