ArticleiScience2025
Scenario-based projections of electricity prices in China's carbon-neutral transition.
Article in iScience, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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7 authors.
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Abstract
China's carbon neutrality goal by 2060 presents major challenges and opportunities for its electricity market. This study analyzes baseline, low-efficiency, and high-efficiency scenarios to represent potential decarbonization pathways in China up to 2060, aiming to estimate the range of electricity prices for each province. A comprehensive dataset covering 5680 coal power units, 342 hydroelectric plants, 172 gas power stations, 19 nuclear power stations, and various solar and wind farms, provides a solid foundation for a bottom-up calculation approach. The results show that most provinces will see a decline in electricity prices due to technological advancements and optimized power generation. The findings in this research contribute to the academic understanding of regional electricity market dynamics under long-term decarbonization scenarios and offer a quantitative basis for evaluating policy impacts on future electricity pricing.
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