Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40676002›Full record

ArticleNature communications2025

Evolving infectious disease dynamics shape school-based intervention effectiveness.

Javier Perez-Saez, Mathilde Bellon, Justin Lessler, Julie Berthelot, Emma B Hodcroft, Grégoire Michielin, Francesco Pennacchio, Julien Lamour, Florian Laubscher, Arnaud G L'Huillier and 8 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

18 authors.

Javier Perez-Saez *Unit of Population Epidemiology, Department of Primary Care Medicine, Geneva University Hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland. javier.perez@hug.ch.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3909-2048
Mathilde Bellon *Center for Emerging Viral Diseases, Geneva University Hospitals and University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.
Justin LesslerDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9741-8109
Julie BerthelotUnit of Population Epidemiology, Department of Primary Care Medicine, Geneva University Hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3534-6549
Emma B HodcroftInstitute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Grégoire MichielinInstitute of Bioengineering, School of Engineering, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6809-9612
Francesco PennacchioUnit of Population Epidemiology, Department of Primary Care Medicine, Geneva University Hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4967-7242
Julien LamourUnit of Population Epidemiology, Department of Primary Care Medicine, Geneva University Hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland.
Florian LaubscherLaboratory of Virology, Diagnostics Department, Geneva University Hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8803-981X
Arnaud G L'HuillierLaboratory of Virology, Diagnostics Department, Geneva University Hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland.
Klara M Posfay-BarbeDepartment of Pediatrics, Gynecology & Obstetrics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.
Sebastian J MaerklInstitute of Bioengineering, School of Engineering, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1917-5268
Idris GuessousDivision of Primary Care, Geneva University Hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland.
Andrew S AzmanCenter for Emerging Viral Diseases, Geneva University Hospitals and University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8662-9077
Isabella EckerleCenter for Emerging Viral Diseases, Geneva University Hospitals and University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.
Silvia StringhiniUnit of Population Epidemiology, Department of Primary Care Medicine, Geneva University Hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4387-8943
Elsa LortheUnit of Population Epidemiology, Department of Primary Care Medicine, Geneva University Hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland. elsa.lorthe@hug.ch.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9654-8104
SEROCoV-Schools study group

Funding

Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation) 198412
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

School-based interventions during epidemics are often controversial, as experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, where reducing transmission had to be weighed against the adverse effects on young children. However, it remains unclear how the broader epidemiologic context influences the effectiveness of these interventions and when they should be implemented. Through integrated modeling of epidemiological and genetic data from a longitudinal school-based surveillance study of SARS-CoV-2 in 2021-2022 (N children = 336, N adults = 51) and scenario simulations, we show how transmission dynamics in schools changed markedly due to strong increases in community-acquired infections in successive periods of viral variants, ultimately undermining the potential impact of school-based interventions in reducing infection rates in the school-aged population. With pandemic preparedness in mind, this study advocates for a dynamic perspective on the role and importance of schools in infectious disease control, one that adapts to the evolving epidemiological landscape shaped by pathogen characteristics and evolution, shifting public health policies, and changes in human behavior.

Indexed as

Communicable Disease ControlCommunicable DiseasesCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2School Health ServicesSchoolsAdolescentAdultChildCommunity-Acquired InfectionsFemaleHumansLongitudinal StudiesMalePandemicsYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID40676002
PMCPMC12271494

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.