Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40675009›Full record

ArticleDrug and alcohol dependence2025

Another carfentanil fatal outbreak in Florida?

Chris Delcher, Eugene Shin, Arjun Iyer, Trokon K Johnson, Agnes D Winokur, Bruce A Goldberger

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Drug and alcohol dependence, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Chris DelcherInstitute for Pharmaceutical Outcomes & Policy, Department of Pharmacy Practice and Science, College of Pharmacy, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40508, USA. Electronic address: chris.delcher@uky.edu.
Eugene ShinInstitute for Pharmaceutical Outcomes & Policy, Department of Pharmacy Practice and Science, College of Pharmacy, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40508, USA.
Arjun IyerDepartment of Pathology, Immunology and Laboratory Medicine, University of Florida, College of Medicine, Gainesville, FL 32610, USA.
Trokon K JohnsonDepartment of Pathology, Immunology and Laboratory Medicine, University of Florida, College of Medicine, Gainesville, FL 32610, USA.
Agnes D WinokurDrug Enforcement Administration, Special Testing and Research Laboratory, Sterling, VA 20166, USA.
Bruce A GoldbergerDepartment of Pathology, Immunology and Laboratory Medicine, University of Florida, College of Medicine, Gainesville, FL 32610, USA.

Funding

National Drug Early Warning System (NDEWS) COVID-19 SupplementU01DA051126 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA · PI Linda B. Cottler, Joseph J Palamar · 2020 to 2026
$6.3M
NIDA NIH HHS U01 DA051126
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIn 2016 and 2017, carfentanil was implicated in the deadliest fatal outbreak involving a fentanyl analog in the United States with 1190 deaths in Florida alone. Recent surveillance signals suggest that Florida is experiencing a resurgence in carfentanil-involved deaths. The purpose of this paper is to examine carfentanil-involved overdoses using up-to-date medical examiners reports triangulated with carfentanil-related indicators at multiple levels.

methodsFlorida's medical examiner data were analyzed in three periods (2016, 2017, 2018-2023) to examine changes in decedent demographic, geographic, and toxicologic characteristics. We triangulated six additional state and national data sources which included completed death certificates, the National Forensic Laboratory Information System, Reddit mentions, and clinical urine drug tests positive for carfentanil.

resultsThere were 24 carfentanil-involved deaths in a 2-month period (Dec/Nov 2023). Compared to 2017, recent decedents were significantly older (42.9 years old vs. 37.1 years old, p < 0.0001) with increased exposure to fentanyl (23.4-68.8 %, p < .0001) and methamphetamine (8.5-20.4 %, p = 0.0003). The state's prior three-county epicenter showed limited involvement (6.5 % vs. 18.9 % total carfentanil deaths) when compared to the prior outbreak. All triangulated national data sources showed strong retrospective concordance. More timely death certificate data suggests that monthly carfentanil deaths were more frequent (mean=4 deaths/mo.) in 2024.

conclusionsThe state may have averted a fatal outbreak as of December 2024, but carfentanil deaths have reached new monthly levels with increasingly active signals in other systems. These systems should be monitored regularly to decrease lag time in fatal overdose surveillance for a faster public health response.

Indexed as

Analgesics, OpioidDisease OutbreaksDrug OverdoseFentanylAdolescentAdultAgedFemaleFloridaHumansMaleMiddle AgedYoung AdultAnalgesics, OpioidcarfentanilFentanylCarfentanilDrug SurveillanceFatal overdosesFlorida

Identifiers

PMID40675009
PMCPMC12287913

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.