Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40673624›Full record

SynthesisThe Laryngoscope2026

ctDNA to Predict Treatment Response in Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Systematic Review.

Oliver Jones, Sumrit Bola, Stuart C Winter

Abstract readSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in The Laryngoscope, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Review
  6. Immune biomarkers for head and neck cancer.Cancer immunology, immunotherapy : CII · 2025
    Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Oliver JonesMedical Student, School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Medical Sciences Division, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-4435-0251
Sumrit BolaConsultant Head and Neck Surgeon, Blenheim Head and Neck Unit, Oxford University NHS Foundation Trust, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-9798-8419
Stuart C WinterConsultant Head and Neck Surgeon, Nuffield Department of Surgical Sciences, Medical Sciences Division, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo investigate the potential role of plasma circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) in predicting treatment response in HPV-positive and HPV-negative Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC). DATA SOURCES: Medline, PubMed, Cochrane databases (Cochrane Library, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) and EMBASE databases were searched in accordance with the standard PICOTS model. REVIEW

methodsSearch results were independently reviewed by two primary authors. Disagreements were adjudicated by the senior author. Studies were excluded according to defined exclusion criteria. Studies were assessed for quality in accordance with the REMARK guidelines. Data were then extracted, and findings were discussed narratively.

resultsFrom a total of 1026 articles initially retrieved, 18 papers were included in the final review. Study quality was suboptimal, with a median REMARK score of 12.65/20. Short follow-up (median 24.5 months) and modest cohort sizes (median 59 patients) were observed. Most studies (13/18) investigated HPV ctDNA alone, and ctDNA detection methods varied considerably between studies. Broadly, studies showed that ctDNA monitoring has a high negative predictive value (91.7%) for residual and recurrent disease. Persistently positive ctDNA corresponded with poorer outcomes overall, but there was variability in the positive predictive value between studies, which was mitigated by consecutive testing.

conclusionThese results suggest there is potential for ctDNA utility in surveillance for both HPV-positive and HPV-negative HNSCC patients; however, better adherence to reporting guidelines will enable meta-analysis.

Indexed as

Circulating Tumor DNAHead and Neck NeoplasmsSquamous Cell Carcinoma of Head and NeckBiomarkers, TumorHumansPapillomaviridaePapillomavirus InfectionsPredictive Value of TestsTreatment OutcomeBiomarkers, TumorCirculating Tumor DNActDNAhead and neckHNSCCprognosticationsurveillance

Identifiers

PMID40673624
PMCPMC12770799

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.