Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40673113›Full record

ArticleOne health (Amsterdam, Netherlands)2025

Projecting lyme disease risk in the United States: A machine learning approach integrating environmental, socioeconomic and vector factors.

Yan-Qun Sun, Xiao-Yan Zhu, Tian-Ci Fan, Tian Ma, Hong-Han Ge, Rui-Fang Shi, Xu Wang, Wei Li, Jie-Yun Yin, Ye Tian

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Yan-Qun SunChildren's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.
Xiao-Yan ZhuSuzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Suzhou, China.
Tian-Ci FanChildren's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.
Tian MaYale Institute for Biospheric Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States.
Hong-Han GeSchool of Public Health and Health Management, Shandong, Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, China.
Rui-Fang ShiThe Affiliated Yancheng Maternity&Child Health Hospital of Yangzhou University Medical School, Suzhou, China.
Xu WangChildren's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.
Wei LiChildren's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.
Jie-Yun YinSchool of Public Health, Medical College of Soochow University, Suzhou, China.
Ye TianChildren's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Objective: Lyme disease, caused by Methods: We analyzed county-level Lyme disease surveillance data (2001-2022) alongside environmental, socioeconomic, and tick vector data. Using machine learning models (Random Forest, Boosted Regression Trees, and XGBoost) and Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP), we evaluated the influence of key predictors on Lyme disease risk. Predicted cases for 2020-2022 were compared with actual reports to assess the pandemic's effects. Results: Lyme disease cases rose from 16,862 in 2001 to 61,802 in 2022, with geographic expansion into southeastern regions. Population density, ecological niche of Conclusion: Our findings highlight the complex interactions of environmental, socioeconomic, and behavioral factors in Lyme disease dynamics, including the significant impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on disease reporting. These insights underscore the need for integrated, data-driven public health strategies to mitigate Lyme disease risk in the United States.

Indexed as

Blacklegged ticksCOVID-19 pandemicLyme diseaseMachine learning

Identifiers

PMID40673113
PMCPMC12266540

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.