ArticleJournal of the American College of Cardiology2025
The Global Syndemic of Modifiable Cardiovascular Risk Factors Projected From 2025 to 2050.
Article in Journal of the American College of Cardiology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Comprehensive Effects of Magnesium Supplementation on Cardiometabolic Risk Factors: A Systematic Review and Dose-Response Meta-Analysis.Nutrients · 2026Pooled it
- Trial
- Phytosterol-induced modulation of gut microbial bile salt hydrolases ameliorates hyperlipidemia via taurohyodeoxycholic acid-mediated FXR antagonism.Gut microbes · 2026Article
- Prevalence and clinical correlates of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease in heart failure.Open heart · 2026Article
- Albumin-based nutritional-inflammatory indices and prognosis in critically ill patients with acute myocardial infarction: a MIMIC-IV cohort study.BMC cardiovascular disorders · 2026Article
- Burden of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease attributable to high body mass index, high fasting plasma glucose or high low density lipoprotein cholesterol in young and middle-aged adults from 1990 to 2050.Diabetology & metabolic syndrome · 2026Article
- Body composition phenotypes are key predictors of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic multimorbidity and long-term mortality: insights from a population-based cohort study.Clinical research in cardiology : official journal of the German Cardiac Society · 2026Article
- The impact and evolution of environmental/occupational, behavioural, and metabolic risk factors on CVD burdens in the Asia-Pacific region from 1990 to 2023: a secondary analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2026Article
- The global cardiovascular-kidney-liver-metabolic burden from 1990 to 2023.EClinicalMedicine · 2026Article
- Burden of cardiovascular diseases in the Asia-Pacific region from 1990 to 2023, with forecasts to 2050: a secondary analysis of the Global Burden of disease study 2023.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2026Article
- Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Burden in Singapore From 1990 to 2050: A Forecasting Analysis of GBD 2023 Study.JACC. Asia · 2026Article
- Cardiovascular Risk Awareness Among Adults in the Northern Border Region of Saudi Arabia: A Cross-Sectional Study with Emphasis on Hypertension and Type 2 Diabetes.Diseases (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Zinc deficiency in patients with type 2 diabetes increases risk of cardiovascular diseases: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.BMC cardiovascular disorders · 2026Article
- Article
- Serum Zinc Levels in Early Life and Risk of Elevated Carotid Intima-Media Thickness: An 8-Year Prospective Study.Cardiovascular toxicology · 2026Article
- Longitudinal changes and cumulative exposure of estimated glucose disposal rate and all-cause mortality in middle-aged and older Chinese adults.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Post-translational modifications of mitochondrion-related proteins: integrative orchestrators of cell fate networks in cardiovascular disease.Cell communication and signaling : CCS · 2026Review
- Sex-Specific Prospective Association of Serum Zinc Concentration with Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality: A 10-Year Population-Based Cohort Study.Journal of cardiovascular translational research · 2026Article
- Systematic review of cardiovascular care delivery across health systems in the Asia-Pacific: a regional roadmap for strengthening cardiovascular care.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2026Article
- Myocardial Infarction Without Standard Modifiable Risk Factors From 2025-2040: Forecast Analysis of Multinational, Population-Based Study.JACC. Asia · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
33 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundCardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of global mortality. Understanding epidemiologic trends in the modifiable risk factors driving CVDs is essential in designing effective countermeasures.
objectivesThe aim of this study was to forecast geospatial trends of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors, namely high systolic blood pressure (SBP), high fasting plasma glucose, high body mass index (BMI), high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and tobacco use from 2025 to 2050.
methodsHistorical data on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality from the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2021 study were used to forecast the burden associated with modifiable cardiovascular risk factors from 2025 to 2050. Trends across GBD super-regions, sex, sociodemographic index, and age groups were examined.
resultsIn 2050, high SBP (1,694.2 [95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1,454.6-1,933.9] per 100,000 population) will contribute to the highest age-standardized DALYs, followed by high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (657.6 [95% UI: 511.9-803.3] per 100,000 population), high BMI (495.2 [95% UI: 330.8-659.6] per 100,000 population), tobacco use (493.7 [95% UI: 378.2-609.1] per 100,000 population), and high fasting plasma glucose (466.7 [95% UI: 311.9-621.5] per 100,000 population). Although age-standardized DALY rates will fall across all cardiovascular risk factors from 2025 to 2050, overall crude DALYs associated with cardiovascular risk factors are projected to rise within the same period. High SBP (rising by 99 million DALYs; 44.1% increase), and high BMI (increasing by 44 million DALYs; 88.0% increase) will have the greatest rise in crude DALYs from 2025 to 2050.
conclusionsAlthough the projected decline in age-standardized DALYs of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors suggest improved management of CVDs, crude DALYs will continue to rise due to population growth and aging.
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