Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40668759›Full record

ArticleJournal of the National Cancer Institute2025

US cancer deaths prevented due to survival improvements stratified by extent of disease, 2010-2019.

Meredith S Shiels, Neal D Freedman, Anika T Haque, Amy Berrington de González, Stanley Lipkowitz, Douglas R Lowy, Ruth M Pfeiffer

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. A Quantitative Framework to Assess the Potential of Earlier Cancer Detection to Improve Cancer Survival.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Article
  6. Cancer statistics, 2026.CA: a cancer journal for clinicians
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Meredith S ShielsDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, United States.ORCID 0000-0001-8390-6091
Neal D FreedmanDivision of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, United States.ORCID 0000-0003-0074-1098
Anika T HaqueDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, United States.ORCID 0000-0002-0619-9300
Amy Berrington de GonzálezClinical Cancer Epidemiology Group, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-7332-8387
Stanley LipkowitzCenter for Cancer Research, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, United States.ORCID 0000-0002-6103-2255
Douglas R LowyCenter for Cancer Research, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, United States.ORCID 0000-0003-0635-219X
Ruth M PfeifferDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, United States.ORCID 0000-0001-7791-2698

Funding

Institute of Cancer ResearchIntramural Research ProgramNCI NIH HHS
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundProgress against cancer mortality has been driven by primary prevention, early detection, and cancer treatment. We estimated the number of cancer deaths that were avoided due to stage-specific improvements in cancer survival among patients diagnosed in 2010-2019 followed through 2020.

methodsWe used cancer incidence data from 17 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) cancer registries during 2004-2019. We estimated the number of cancer deaths prevented due to cancer- and stage-specific survival improvements (based on SEER summary stage) as the observed minus expected number of cancer deaths through 2020. We calculated the expected number of cancer deaths from estimated cumulative incidence models setting the calendar year effect to 2009.

resultsDuring 2010-2019, there were 3 310 270 incident cancers and 966 733 cancer deaths through 2020 in SEER-17. Improvements in stage-specific cancer survival resulted in a 4.7% (95% CI = -5.3% to -4.2%) decline in cancer deaths in females (22,874 fewer deaths) and a 4.4% (95% CI = -4.9% to -3.9%) decline in males (23 198 fewer deaths) in SEER-17 regions, corresponding to approximately 173 900 fewer cancer deaths in the full US population. The largest absolute declines were for lung and liver cancers, whereas the largest relative declines were observed for melanoma and leukemia. Cancer deaths prevented were not statistically significant for colorectal or prostate cancers. All statistical tests were 2-sided.

conclusionsStage-specific survival gains, reflecting treatment advances and improved access to cancer treatment from 2010 to 2019, resulted in an estimated 173 900 fewer cancer deaths among US cancer patients diagnosed during this time period.

Indexed as

NeoplasmsAdultAgedFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedNeoplasm StagingRegistriesSEER ProgramSurvival RateUnited States

Identifiers

PMID40668759
PMCPMC12505133

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.