Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40665801›Full record

ArticleAnnals of medicine2025

The surprise question: predictive accuracy in an unselected emergency department population - a prospective study in nurses and physicians.

Maurice Theunissen, Sacha Lardenoye, Marieke H J van den Beuken-van Everdingen, Patricia M Stassen

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Article in Annals of medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Maurice TheunissenCenter of Expertise for Palliative Care, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, The Netherlands.
Sacha LardenoyeDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, The Netherlands.
Marieke H J van den Beuken-van EverdingenCenter of Expertise for Palliative Care, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, The Netherlands.
Patricia M StassenDepartment of Internal Medicine, Division of General Internal Medicine, Section Acute Medicine, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0003-0864-1542

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe 'surprise question' (SQ) asks care professionals to assess the patient's mortality risk. In this prospective study, we investigated 1) the prognostic accuracy of the SQ regarding 3- and 12-month mortality (SQ PATIENTS AND

methodsIn this prospective study, the SQ

resultsIn total, 1958 patients were assessed. Mortality within 12 months was 13.9% in all patients (8.3% within 3 months), 22.9% in older and 20.1% in medical patients. The AU-ROC of the SQ

conclusionsThe study supports the SQ as a simple prognostic tool in the ED, with 12-month prognostic accuracy being especially reliable in high-risk patients. The agreement between nurses and physicians was fair-moderate. The SQ could play an important role in guiding ED care, especially in high-risk patients.

Indexed as

Emergency Service, HospitalAdultAgedAged, 80 and overFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedNursesPhysiciansPredictive Value of TestsPrognosisProspective StudiesRisk AssessmentROC CurveSensitivity and Specificityemergency departmentpredictive accuracySurprise question

Identifiers

PMID40665801
PMCPMC12269047

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.