Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40665147›Full record

ArticleNPJ digital medicine2025

Predictive modeling for step II therapy response in periodontitis - model development and validation.

Elias Walter, Tobias Brock, Pierre Lahoud, Nils Werner, Felix Czaja, Antonin Tichy, Caspar Bumm, Andreas Bender, Ana Castro, Wim Teughels and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in NPJ digital medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Review
  6. Article
  7. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Elias WalterDepartment of Conservative Dentistry and Periodontology, University Hospital, LMU Munich, GoethestraSSe 70, Munich, Bavaria, Germany. Elias.Walter@med.uni-muenchen.de.
Tobias BrockDepartment of Conservative Dentistry and Periodontology, University Hospital, LMU Munich, GoethestraSSe 70, Munich, Bavaria, Germany.
Pierre LahoudDepartment of Conservative Dentistry and Periodontology, University Hospital, LMU Munich, GoethestraSSe 70, Munich, Bavaria, Germany.
Nils WernerDepartment of Conservative Dentistry and Periodontology, University Hospital, LMU Munich, GoethestraSSe 70, Munich, Bavaria, Germany.
Felix CzajaDepartment of Statistics, LMU Munich, Munich, Bavaria, Germany.
Antonin TichyDepartment of Conservative Dentistry and Periodontology, University Hospital, LMU Munich, GoethestraSSe 70, Munich, Bavaria, Germany.
Caspar BummDepartment of Conservative Dentistry and Periodontology, University Hospital, LMU Munich, GoethestraSSe 70, Munich, Bavaria, Germany.
Andreas BenderDepartment of Statistics, LMU Munich, Munich, Bavaria, Germany.
Ana CastroDivision of Periodontology & Oral Microbiology, Department of Oral Health Sciences, University Hospitals Leuven, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
Wim TeughelsDivision of Periodontology & Oral Microbiology, Department of Oral Health Sciences, University Hospitals Leuven, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
Falk SchwendickeDepartment of Conservative Dentistry and Periodontology, University Hospital, LMU Munich, GoethestraSSe 70, Munich, Bavaria, Germany.
Matthias FolwacznyDepartment of Conservative Dentistry and Periodontology, University Hospital, LMU Munich, GoethestraSSe 70, Munich, Bavaria, Germany.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Steps I and II periodontal therapy is the first-line treatment for periodontal disease, but has varying success. This study aimed to develop machine learning models to predict changes in periodontal probing depth (PPD) after step II therapy using patient-, tooth-, and site-specific clinical covariates. Models accurately predicted that healthy sites stay healthy, but performed suboptimally for diseased sites. Tuning improved performance, with PPD, tooth-site, and tooth-type identified as key predictors. Pocket closure was predicted with fair accuracy, with baseline PPD as the most relevant covariate. Models predicted improving pockets well but underperformed for non-responding sites, with antibiotic treatment and tooth type being the most influential features. While predictive performance for step II periodontal therapy based on routine clinical data remains limited, models can stratify periodontal sites into meaningful categories and estimate the probability of pocket improvement. They provide a foundation for site-specific outcome prediction and may support patient communication and expectations.

Identifiers

PMID40665147
PMCPMC12264052

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.