Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40659790›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2025

Trends in stroke incidence and mortality in China, Japan, and South Korea (1990-2021) with projections to 2035.

Liyuan Yang, Luhan Fan, Yuanyi Cao, Xinyao Liu, Chao Yang, Yamei Luo, Junhui Zhang

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Liyuan Yang *Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Southwest Medical University, No. 1, Section 1, Xianglin Rd, Longmatan District, Luzhou, 646000, Sichuan, People's Republic of China.
Luhan Fan *Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Southwest Medical University, No. 1, Section 1, Xianglin Rd, Longmatan District, Luzhou, 646000, Sichuan, People's Republic of China.
Yuanyi Cao *Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Southwest Medical University, No. 1, Section 1, Xianglin Rd, Longmatan District, Luzhou, 646000, Sichuan, People's Republic of China.
Xinyao LiuThe Affiliated Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital, Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, 646000, Sichuan, People's Republic of China.
Chao YangDepartment of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Southwest Medical University, No. 1, Section 1, Xianglin Rd, Longmatan District, Luzhou, 646000, Sichuan, People's Republic of China.
Yamei LuoSchool of Medical Information and Engineering, Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, 646000, Sichuan, People's Republic of China. luoyamei@swmu.edu.cn.
Junhui ZhangDepartment of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Southwest Medical University, No. 1, Section 1, Xianglin Rd, Longmatan District, Luzhou, 646000, Sichuan, People's Republic of China. zjh960500@swmu.edu.cn.

Funding

Central Nervous System Drug Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province 230035-01SZScientific Research Programme of Southwest Medical University 2021ZKMS002Sichuan Provincial Science and Technology Plan Key R&D Project 2024YFFK0348
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Stroke incidence and mortality trends in China, Japan, and South Korea differ, with largely unknown underlying causes. This study analysed stroke incidence and mortality trends in China, Japan, and South Korea from 1990 to 2021 and projected trends to 2035, and compared these patterns with the U.S. and global trends in stroke burden and key determinants to inform prevention strategies. Global Burden of Disease data for stroke incidence and mortality in these countries and regions from 1990 to 2021 were used. Temporal trends were analysed using joinpoint regression; age-period-cohort analysis assessed age, period, and cohort effects; and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model predicted trends to 2035. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) and mortality rates (ASMRs) of stroke for both sexes in China, Japan, and South Korea declined. The average annual percentage declines in the stroke ASIR and ASMR were - 3.58% and - 5.52% in South Korea, - 1.55% and - 3.54% in Japan, and - 0.37% and - 1.79% in China, compared with - 1.29% and - 1.15% in the U.S., and - 0.81% and - 1.60% globally. Age and cohort effects were key determinants of stroke incidence and mortality trends, with older age groups having the highest incidence and mortality relative risks, which declined in later birth cohorts across China, Japan, and South Korea. Despite progress, only stroke deaths among females in Japan are projected to decline. Stroke ASIRs and ASMRs are projected to remain stable or decline in China and South Korea, whereas Japan's ASIR is projected to rise, despite a decline in the ASMR. This study, centred on China, Japan, and South Korea, provides a comprehensive comparison with U.S. and global trends, highlighting regional characteristics in the context of international standards, and emphasises the impact of ageing and cohort effects on differences, offering an evidence base for targeted stroke prevention strategies and an international reference in East Asia.

Indexed as

StrokeAdultAgedAged, 80 and overBayes TheoremChinaFemaleHumansIncidenceJapanMaleMiddle AgedMortalityRepublic of KoreaAge-period-cohort modelBayesian age-period-cohort modelEpidemiologyGlobal burden of diseaseJoinpoint regression modelStroke

Identifiers

PMID40659790
PMCPMC12260053

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.