ArticleJournal of the American Heart Association2025
Development and Validation of an Incident Hypertension Risk Prediction Model for Young Adults.
Article in Journal of the American Heart Association, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Association between PMBMC public health · 2026Pooled it
- The High Prevalence of High Normal Blood Pressure and the Differential Association of Grip Strength Metrics with Hypertension in a National Sample of Chinese College Students.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Article
- Beyond the Tip of the Iceberg: Rethinking Hypertension Screening in Young Adults.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2025Article
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19 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundIdentifying young adults at high risk of hypertension can improve blood pressure screening recommendations.
methodsWe developed models to predict incident hypertension using diverse contemporary cohorts of young adults aged 18 to 39 years from Kaiser Permanente Southern California (derivation and internal validation) and 3 cohort studies (CARDIA [Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults], FHS [Framingham Heart Study], HCHS/SOL [Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos]; external validation). Predictors included age, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, smoking, social determinants of health, comorbidities, high- and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and pregnancy-related hypertensive disorders. We used Cox elastic net and random survival forests to develop sex-specific models and compared their performance to 2021 US Preventive Services Task Force blood pressure screening recommendations.
resultsAmong 355 524 adults from Kaiser Permanente Southern California (mean age, 29 years; mean systolic/diastolic blood pressure, 115/70 mm Hg), 11.7% developed hypertension in a median of 5.4 years. External validation showed good discrimination and calibration (Harrell's C-statistic, 0.76 and 0.82; Integrated Brier Score, 0.04 and 0.02 for men and women, respectively). Compared with US Preventive Services Task Force, a 10-year risk for hypertension of ≥15% in the external cohort using the new model showed similar sensitivity (men, 0.90 versus 0.89; women, 0.81 versus 0.81) and moderate improvement in specificity (men, 0.35 versus 0.25; women, 0.66 versus 0.44). Using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, the prediction model estimated 28.5 million US young adults being at high risk of hypertension compared with 45.3 million by the US Preventive Services Task Force.
conclusionsCompared with the US Preventive Services Task Force, the hypertension risk prediction model may be a more efficient tool to identify high-risk young adults for early intervention.
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