ArticleScientific reports2025
Modeling and analysis of a delayed fractional order COVID-19 SEIHRM model with media coverage in Malaysia.
Article in Scientific reports, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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Abstract
This paper proposed a delayed fractional-order SEIHR-M model incorporating media influence to investigate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Malaysia. By integrating fractional-order dynamics and time-delay media influence into a unified epidemic framework, this novel structure more accurately captures both memory effects and behavioral response lags in the context of COVID-19. Theoretical analysis verified the existence, non-negativity, and boundedness of the solutions, ensuring the biological feasibility of the model. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] was derived using the next-generation matrix method, serving as a key metric for evaluating disease transmission and model stability. Furthermore, when [Formula: see text], the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable regardless of the value of the delay parameter τ. When [Formula: see text], the stability of the endemic equilibrium exhibits two scenarios: if [Formula: see text], sufficient conditions for local asymptotic stability are provided; if [Formula: see text], there exists a critical delay [Formula: see text]. The endemic equilibrium remains locally asymptotically stable for [Formula: see text] but becomes unstable for [Formula: see text], undergoing a Hopf bifurcation at [Formula: see text], leading to periodic oscillations. The numerical simulation results not only validate the theoretical analysis but also show that as the fractional-order parameter increases, the system exhibits more pronounced oscillations; furthermore, longer delay times facilitate the emergence of these oscillatory behaviors, making the epidemic more prone to recurrent and periodic fluctuations. By fitting the model with early COVID-19 data from Malaysia, the feasibility and applicability of the model are further validated, and the superior fitting performance of the fractional-order delay model compared to the corresponding integer-order model is highlighted. Finally, sensitivity analysis results show that media interventions have a significant impact on epidemic spread, further demonstrating that timely and effective information dissemination plays a crucial role in reducing the peak of infections and controlling the epidemic.
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