Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40646964›Full record

ArticleFoods (Basel, Switzerland)2025

A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for

Laurent Guillier, Ursula Gonzales-Barron, Régis Pouillot, Juliana De Oliveira Mota, Ana Allende, Jovana Kovacevic, Claudia Guldimann, Aamir Fazil, Hamzah Al-Qadiri, Qingli Dong and 3 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Foods (Basel, Switzerland), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Quantitative Risk Assessment ofFoods (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Laurent GuillierRisk Assessment Department, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health & Safety (Anses), 14 rue Pierre et Marie Curie, 94700 Maisons-Alfort, France.ORCID 0000-0002-7867-2937
Ursula Gonzales-BarronCIMO, LA SusTEC, Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Campus de Santa Apolónia, 5300-253 Bragança, Portugal.ORCID 0000-0002-8462-9775
Régis PouillotConsultant, 18 rue Mohamed Al Ghazi, Rabat 10170, Morocco.ORCID 0000-0002-6107-5212
Juliana De Oliveira MotaDepartment of Nutrition and Food Safety, World Health Organization, 1211 Geneva, Switzerland.
Ana AllendeCEBAS-CSIC, Microbiology and Quality of Fruits and Vegetables Group, Campus de Espinardo, 25, 30100 Murcia, Spain.
Jovana KovacevicFood Innovation Center, Oregon State University, 1207 NW Naito Parkway, Portland, OR 97209, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1254-4294
Claudia GuldimannCompetence Center for Food Safety, Chair for Food Safety and Analytics, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Schönleutnerstrasse 8, 85764 Oberschleissheim, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-9895-750X
Aamir FazilPublic Health Risk Sciences Division (PHRS), Public Health Agency of Canada, 370 Speedvale Avenue West, Guelph, ON N1H 7M7, Canada.
Hamzah Al-QadiriDepartment of Nutrition and Food Technology, School of Agriculture, The University of Jordan, Amman 11942, Jordan.ORCID 0000-0001-7410-1398
Qingli DongSchool of Health Science and Engineering, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China.ORCID 0000-0001-9019-0001
Akio HasegawaDepartment of Nutrition and Food Safety, World Health Organization, 1211 Geneva, Switzerland.
Vasco CadavezCIMO, LA SusTEC, Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Campus de Santa Apolónia, 5300-253 Bragança, Portugal.ORCID 0000-0002-3077-7414
Moez SanaaDepartment of Nutrition and Food Safety, World Health Organization, 1211 Geneva, Switzerland.

Funding

World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

This study introduces a farm-to-fork quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model for invasive listeriosis from ready-to-eat diced cantaloupe. The modular model comprises seven stages-preharvest (soil and irrigation contamination), harvest (cross-contamination and survival), pre-processing (brushing), processing (flume tank washing, dicing and equipment cross-contamination), lot testing, cold-chain transport and retail growth, and consumer storage/handling. Each stage employs stochastic functions to simulate microbial prevalence and concentration changes (growth, inactivation, removal, partitioning, cross-contamination) using published data. In a reference scenario-good agricultural practices (soil barriers, no preharvest irrigation), hygienic processing and proper cold storage-the model predicts low lot- and pack-level contamination, with few packs >10 CFU/g and most servings below detection; the mean risk per serving is very low. "What-if" analyses highlight critical control points: the absence of soil barriers with preharvest irrigation can increase the risk by 10,000-fold; flume tank water contamination has a greater impact than harvest-stage cross-contamination; and poor consumer storage can raise the risk by up to 500-fold. This flexible QRA framework enables regulators and industry to evaluate and optimize interventions-from improved agricultural measures to targeted sampling plans and consumer guidance-to mitigate listeriosis risk from RTE diced cantaloupe.

Indexed as

exposure assessmentlisteriosismelonprimary productionsimulation

Identifiers

PMID40646964
PMCPMC12248774

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.