Optimism, pessimism, and depressive symptoms: Stability and predictive effects among climate migrants in the United States.

The emotional and material disruption caused by climate disasters often forces migrants to rely on their expectations for the future to cope with uncertainty. Whether positive or negative, these outlooks can significantly influence mental health over time. Using random-intercept cross-lagged panel modeling and six waves of data from 319 climate migrants in the United States, we examined the longitudinal relationships among optimism, pessimism, and depressive symptoms to assess their stability and predictive effects. Our findings indicate that optimism and pessimism are distinct yet related constructs, suggesting that individuals in this sample can experience both optimism and pessimism at the trait level. Further highlighting their trait-like nature, 39 % of the variance in optimism, 42 % in pessimism, and 55 % in depressive symptoms was attributable to between-person (trait-level) differences rather than within-person (state-level) fluctuations. This suggests that interventions aimed at modifying these constructs among climate migrants should address both individual traits and life circumstances resulting from the disaster. Surprisingly, neither optimism nor pessimism predicted future depressive symptoms in this sample. However, depressive symptoms negatively predicted optimism but not pessimism. Regarding sociodemographic factors, improved income following migration was associated with higher levels of optimism and lower levels of pessimism and depressive symptoms. These findings suggest that upward economic mobility may have a protective influence on both optimism and depressive symptoms among climate migrants in the United States. Implications for future research and policy are discussed.