ArticleBMJ global health2025
Estimating the historical impact of outbreak response immunisation programmes across 210 outbreaks in low and middle-income countries.
Article in BMJ global health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Somalia cannot outbreak-respond its way out of a climate crisis: Building health sovereignty througone health.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- Article
- Yellow Fever Outbreaks and Reactive Vaccination in Africa, 2010-2025: A Scoping Review and Analysis.Research square · 2026Article
- Estimating the impact of decreasing vaccination response times for outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases in low- and middle-income countries.BMC global and public health · 2026Article
- Cholera surveillance time series in Africa between 2010 and 2023.Gates open research · 2026Article
- Scientists' Warning to Humanity: The Need to Begin Teaching Critical and Systems Thinking Early in Life.Microbial biotechnology · 2025Article
- How mathematical modelling can inform outbreak response vaccination.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Review
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundOutbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases frequently occur in low and middle-income countries (LMICs), requiring outbreak response immunisation (ORI) programmes for containment. To inform future investment decisions, this study aimed to estimate the cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and societal economic costs averted by past ORI programmes. Outbreaks of measles, Ebola, yellow fever, cholera and meningococcal meningitis in LMICs between 2000 and 2023 were considered.
methods210 outbreaks (51 measles, 40 cholera, 88 yellow fever, 24 meningitis, 7 Ebola) across 49 LMICs were identified with sufficient data for analysis. Data were sourced from publicly available outbreak reports and literature. Agent-based models were calibrated for each disease such that after controlling for baseline vaccine coverage, response time, vaccination rate, environmental variables or endemic prevalence of the disease, observed outbreaks were within the distribution of simulated outbreaks. A status-quo and no ORI scenario were compared for each outbreak.
findingsAcross 210 outbreaks, ORI programmes are estimated to have averted 5.81M (95% uncertainty interval 5.75M-5.87M) cases (4.01M measles, 283K cholera, 1.50M yellow fever, 21.3K meningitis, 820 Ebola), 327K (317K-338K) deaths (20.0K measles, 5215 cholera, 300K yellow fever, 1599 meningitis, 381 Ebola), 14.6M (14.1M-15.1M) DALYs (1.27M measles, 220K cholera, 13.0M yellow fever, 113K meningitis, 16.6K Ebola) and US$31.7B (29.0B-34.9B) (US$710M measles, US$156M cholera, US$30.7B yellow fever, US$97.6M meningitis, US$6.72M Ebola) in economic costs. Often, the more rapidly the ORI was initiated the greater impact.
interpretationORI programmes are critical for reducing the health and economic impacts of outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases.
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