ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2025
The speed of vaccination rollout and the risk of pathogen adaptation.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Real-world analysis of depression-related adverse events associated with the adsorbed anthrax vaccine: integrating pharmacovigilance signals, machine learning risk prediction, and transcriptomic mechanisms.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2026Article
- The speed of vaccination rollout and the risk of pathogen adaptation.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- The probability of epidemic burnout in the stochastic SIR model with vital dynamics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Vaccination is expected to reduce disease prevalence and to halt the spread of epidemics. Pathogen adaptation, however, may erode the efficacy of vaccination and limit our ability to control disease spread. Here, we examine the influence of the rate of vaccination of the host population on the overall risk of pathogen adaptation to vaccination. We extend the framework of evolutionary epidemiology theory to account for demographic stochasticity in the different steps leading to the adaptation to vaccination: (i) the introduction of a vaccine-escape variant by mutation from an endemic wild-type pathogen, (ii) the invasion of this vaccine-escape variant in spite of the risk of early extinction, (iii) the spread and fixation of the vaccine-escape variant in the pathogen population. We introduce a novel and versatile hybrid analytical-numerical method that allows fast computation of the probabilities associated with these steps. Using it, we show that increasing the rate of vaccination can reduce both the number of cases and the likelihood of pathogen adaptation. Our work clarifies the influence of vaccination policies-a major ecological perturbation of the environment of a pathogen-on different steps of pathogen adaptation. The model provides a useful theoretical framework to account for the interplay between epidemiology, selection and genetic drift and to anticipate the effects of public-health interventions on pathogen evolution.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.