ArticlePLoS computational biology2025
Infectivity and fatality of influenza in pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic year.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic and related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) significantly alter the transmission dynamics of non-SARS-CoV-2 infectious diseases, with respiratory infections such as influenza being disproportionately affected. We aim to compare influenza's epidemiological characteristics between pre-pandemic and post-pandemic periods to inform public health responses. We develop two influenza transmission models incorporating age structure and multi-strain dynamics, featuring time-varying transmission and mortality rates. Using publicly available U.S. data, we calibrate these models to evaluate age- and strain-specific transmission patterns and mortality rates across different pandemic eras. Our analysis reveals that during the final pandemic year, influenza transmission among adults ([Formula: see text] years) initially declined but rebounded to pre-pandemic levels within the first post-pandemic year following NPI relaxation and behavioral normalization, while transmission stability persists in the <18 cohort. All-age influenza mortality rates exhibit a transient elevation during the pandemic's final year before returning to baseline levels pre-pandemic. Furthermore, after the COVID-19 pandemic, the transmission rate of influenza A decreases alongside peaks in new cases, while the transmission of influenza B fluctuates without a decline. Our findings indicate that while the COVID-19 pandemic has induced significant transient modifications in influenza's epidemiological profile, key transmission and mortality characteristics regain pre-pandemic equilibrium within one year following pandemic resolution.
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