ArticleNature communications2025
Risk assessment and perspectives of local transmission of chikungunya and dengue in Italy, a European forerunner.
Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed.
- Mapping one health surveillance and networks for vector-borne disease prevention and control in Europe - A scoping review.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Review
- Differentiated mosquito adaptive strategies underlie regional dominance of three ECSA sub-lineages in chikungunya virus.PLoS pathogens · 2026Article
- Pediatric Arboviral Infections in Europe: Epidemiology, Clinical Features, Diagnosis and Prevention.Viruses · 2026Review
- Autochthonous chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreak in the province of Modena, Emilia-Romagna region, Italy, August to October 2025: epidemiology, clinical features and virological findings.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2026Article
- Dengue Vaccines in a Changing Epidemiological Landscape: Current Evidence, Unresolved Challenges, and Public Health Considerations.Vaccines · 2026Review
- Authors' response: Autochthonous transmission patterns of dengue virus serotype 2 in Italy: evidence from outbreaks in 2024.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2026Article
- How host mobility formulations shape estimates of pathogen dispersal and epidemic risk in non endemic regions.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Chikungunya virus: global epidemiology, transmission dynamics, and emerging challenges for public health.Infection · 2026Review
- Impact of climate change on the global circulation of chikungunya virus: current evidence, future projections, and adaptation strategies.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2026Review
- Autochthonous transmission patterns of dengue virus serotype 2 in Italy: evidence from outbreaks in 2024.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2026Article
- Global source-sink dynamics of dengue viruses and epidemic establishment in areas on the fringe of endemic transmission.National science review · 2026Article
- Invasive Alien Species of European Union Concern: A Systematic Review of High-Priority Pathogens in 22 Species in a One Health Framework.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2026Review
- Article
- Chikungunya resurgence in Italy: a signal of vectorborne viruses changing pattern in the era of climate change?Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- High-resolution characterisation of diel activity rhythms inCurrent research in parasitology & vector-borne diseases · 2026Article
- European neurologists need to be aware of chikungunya (CHIKV) and dengue (DENV) viruses.Neurological sciences : official journal of the Italian Neurological Society and of the Italian Society of Clinical Neurophysiology · 2025Article
- Lessons from an investigation of an autochthonous chikungunya outbreak in Bergerac, mainland France, June to October 2025.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025Article
- Temporal Trends of Dengue Surveillance in Sardinia, Italy: Implications of Climate Change on Human and Entomological Monitoring.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2025Article
- West Nile virus and arboviral threats: a call for integration into critical care preparedness.Journal of anesthesia, analgesia and critical care · 2025Article
- The need for dengue and chikungunya awareness among mental health professionals in Europe.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
19 authors.
Funding
Abstract
To address the growing frequency, extension, and size of local arboviral outbreaks in Europe we retrospectively analyzed dengue and chikungunya transmission in Italy from 2006 to 2023. We applied generalized additive models to the records of travel-related cases to highlight the spatiotemporal patterns of disease importation, calculated reproduction numbers for six local outbreaks based on autochthonous case data and mapped current transmission risks by applying a computational model that integrates human density, entomological, and climate data. Outbreak locations appear driven by case importation, which is notably higher for dengue - especially from June to October - rather than local transmission risks. Although reporting delays and favorable temperatures allowed onward transmission for several generations from mid-August to mid-November, upon outbreak detection control of transmission was achieved within 15 days. In high-risk areas, significantly longer epidemic risks were found for chikungunya (over 4 months). However, considering observed importation trends, increasingly frequent local dengue outbreaks are expected. Case detection should be prioritized focusing on areas, and in times, where environmental and climate conditions are permissive, regardless of prior outbreaks.
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