ArticleNature communications2025
Quantifying local stability and noise levels from time series in the US Western Interconnection blackout on 10th August 1996.
Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Detecting and forecasting tipping points from sample variance alone.PNAS nexus · 2026Article
- Quantifying local stability and noise levels from time series in the US Western Interconnection blackout on 10th August 1996.Nature communications · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Critical transitions necessitate anticipation to prevent adverse outcomes. While many studies focus on bifurcation-induced tipping, noise-induced tipping is also possible. We propose to use the open-source (non-Markovian) Bayesian Langevin estimation to quantify deterministic and stochastic dynamics simultaneously. By analysing bus voltage frequency time series from the Western Interconnection blackout on 10th August 1996, complemented by conceptual network models of its key events, we reveal the interplay of changing local restoring rates and noise levels. Furthermore, a comparison of these findings to the blackout's timeline supports our frequency Langevin model driven by correlated noise. A state change is indicated two minutes before the official triggering event, potentially by establishing a tree-to-line fault. This study highlights the importance of distinguishing destabilising factors for anticipating critical transitions and provides a tool for understanding such events across various disciplines.
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Registered trials
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