Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40615687›Full record

ArticleNature medicine2025

Performance of the American Heart Association's PREVENT risk score for cardiovascular risk prediction in a multiethnic population.

Roy O Mathew, Sadiya S Khan, Katherine R Tuttle, Jennifer E Ho, Dmitry Abramov, Sripal Bangalore, Mandeep S Sidhu, Chiadi E Ndumele, Tiffany M Powell-Wiley, Ian J Neeland and 3 more

Abstract read
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Nature medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. The PREVENT Risk Equations and Cardiovascular Prevention in East Asia.Journal of atherosclerosis and thrombosis · 2026
    Review
  3. Article
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  7. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Roy O Mathew *Department of Medicine, Division of Nephrology, Loma Linda VA Healthcare system, Loma Linda, CA, USA. Roy.mathew@va.gov.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5582-3165
Sadiya S Khan *Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Northwestern Medicine Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0643-1859
Katherine R TuttleProvidence Medical Research Center, Providence Inland Northwest Health, Spokane, WA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2235-0103
Jennifer E HoDepartment of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7987-4768
Dmitry AbramovDivision of Cardiology, Loma Linda University Medical Center, Loma Linda, CA, USA.
Sripal BangaloreDivision of Cardiovascular Medicine, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA.
Mandeep S SidhuDepartment of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Albany Medical College, Albany, NY, USA.
Chiadi E NdumeleDivision of Cardiovascular Medicine, Johns Hopkins Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Tiffany M Powell-WileySocial Determinants of Obesity and Cardiovascular Risk Laboratory, Cardiovascular Branch, Division of Intramural Research National Heart Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9488-4131
Ian J NeelandHarrington Heart and Vascular Institute, University Hospitals Cleveland and Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, OH, USA.
Josef CoreshDepartments of Population Health and Medicine, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4598-0669
Mitchell S V ElkindAmerican Heart Association, Dallas, TX, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2562-1156
Janani Rangaswami *Department of Medicine, Division of Nephrology, Washington DC VA Medical Center, Washington, DC, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular EVENTS (PREVENT) equations, created and endorsed by the American Heart Association, provide cardiovascular risk estimates for the general population, but have not yet been tested in multiethnic populations. In the present study, in a large nationwide multiethnic sample of US veterans, the utility of PREVENT to predict the risk of total cardiovascular disease (CVD: fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke or heart failure; PREVENT-CVD), atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD: fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction or stroke; PREVENT ASCVD) and heart failure was evaluated. We assessed the discrimination and calibration performance of ASCVD prediction with PREVENT ASCVD compared with a previous risk-prediction score, pooled cohort equations (PCEs). Among 2,500,291 veterans aged 30-79 years (93.9% men and 6.1% women), 407,342 total CVD events occurred over a median (interquartile range (IQR)) follow-up of 5.8 (IQR = 3.1-8.3) years. The Concordance index (C-index) (95% confidence interval (CI)) for PREVENT-CVD was 0.65 (95% CI = 0.65-0.65) in the overall sample and was similar across different race and ethnic groups (Asian, Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, 0.70 (95% CI = 0.69-0.71); Hispanic, 0.70 (95% CI = 0.69-0.70); non-Hispanic Black. 0.68 (95% CI = 0.68-0.69) and non-Hispanic White, 0.65 (95% CI = 0.64-0.65)). C-indices were similar between PREVENT ASCVD and PCEs and ranged from 0.61 to 0.63. Calibration slopes for PREVENT-CVD and -ASCVD in the overall sample were 1.09 (s.e. = 0.04) and 1.15 (s.e. = 0.04), respectively. In contrast, PCEs demonstrated overprediction for ASCVD with a calibration slope of 0.51 (s.e. = 0.06). Calibration slopes for PREVENT and PCEs were similar across race and ethnic groups. Among US veterans, the PREVENT equations accurately estimated CVD and ASCVD risk with some variability across race and ethnicity groups and outperformed PCEs for ASCVD risk prediction.

Indexed as

American Heart AssociationCardiovascular DiseasesAdultAgedEthnicityFemaleHeart Disease Risk FactorsHumansMaleMiddle AgedRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsUnited StatesVeterans

Identifiers

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.