ArticleEcoHealth2025
The Future Abundance of Key Bird Species for Pathogen Transmission in the Netherlands.
Article in EcoHealth, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Silent reservoir species are shaping the emergence of Usutu virus.Nature ecology & evolution · 2026Article
- Scenario-driven shifts in future Usutu and West Nile virus outbreak characteristics in the Netherlands.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Phylodynamic analyses reveal persistence and extensive intermixing of Usutu virus in the Netherlands.Virus evolution · 2026Article
- Ecological drivers of arboviral disease risk: Vector-host interfaces in a Mediterranean wetland of Northeastern Spain.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Spatial inference of Culex pipiens abundance and biting activity distribution in the Netherlands using citizen science.Parasites & vectors · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Wild birds serve as reservoirs and vectors for many different pathogens. Changes in their distribution and abundance, due to environmental change, will influence disease risk. We investigated potential changes in abundance for three commonly occurring species that are likely major drivers of a wide range of diseases: blackbirds, mallards and house sparrows. These are competent hosts for avian influenza and West Nile virus, among other pathogens. Using the Netherlands as a case study, we created random forest models for predicting the distribution and (relative) abundance of these species, both now (1991-2020) and in the future (2036-2065). The three species had different spatial distributions, largely related to their preferred habitat and food availability. In the future, mallard and house sparrow populations were predicted to increase, while there was little change for blackbirds. These changes in abundance have a potentially strong relationship with disease risk, since species abundance is linked to the size of pathogen reservoirs. We demonstrate this relationship by linking blackbird abundance to cases of Usutu virus in the Netherlands. Our work illustrates the potential value of forecasting (relative) abundance to estimate future disease risk and to assist planning of disease management actions.
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Registered trials
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