Trial reportMedical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making2025
The Impact of Machine Learning Mortality Risk Prediction on Clinician Prognostic Accuracy and Decision Support: A Randomized Vignette Study.
Trial report in Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Mortality risk estimation for autistic older adults: comparing novel machine-learning derived weights versus standard weights for the Charlson Comorbidity Index.Journal of comparative effectiveness research · 2026Article
- Artificial intelligence in urological malignancy diagnosis and prognosis: current status and future prospects.The Canadian journal of urology · 2026Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
BackgroundMachine learning (ML) algorithms may improve the prognosis for serious illnesses such as cancer, identifying patients who may benefit from earlier palliative care (PC) or advance care planning (ACP). We evaluated the impact of various presentation strategies of a hypothetical ML algorithm on clinician prognostic accuracy and decision making.MethodsThis was a randomized clinical vignette survey study among medical oncologists who treat metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer (mNSCLC). Between March and June 2023, clinicians were shown 3 vignettes of patients presenting with mNSCLC. The vignettes varied by prognostic risk, as defined from the Lung Cancer Prognostic Index (LCPI). Clinicians estimated life expectancy in months and made recommendations about PC and ACP. Clinicians were then shown the same vignette with a hypothetical survival estimate from a black-box ML algorithm; clinicians were randomized to receive the ML prediction using absolute and/or reference-dependent prognostic estimates. The primary outcome was prognostic accuracy relative to the LCPI.ResultsAmong 51 clinicians with complete responses, the median years in practice was 7 (interquartile range 3.5-19), 14 (27.5%) were female, 23 (45.1%) practiced in a community oncology setting, and baseline accuracy was 54.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 47.0-62.8) across all vignettes. ML presentation improved accuracy (mean change relative to baseline 20.9%, 95% CI 13.9-27.9,
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.