Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40610612›Full record

ArticleCommunications psychology2025

Large language models predict cognition and education close to or better than genomics or expert assessment.

Tobias Wolfram

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Communications psychology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

1 author.

Tobias WolframFaculty of Sociology, Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany. tobias.wolfram@uni-bielefeld.de.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0280-2512

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Previous research using standard social survey data has emphasized a relative lack of power when predicting educational and psychological outcomes. Leveraging a unique longitudinal dataset, we explore predictability of educational attainment, cognitive abilities, and non-cognitive traits. Integrating various measures of computational linguistics and large language model-based embeddings within a SuperLearner framework trained on short aspirational essays written at age 11, we accurately predict cognition and non-cognitive traits at the same and later age to a similar degree as teacher assessments, and better than genomic data. The same is true for predicting final educational attainment. Combining text, genetic markers, and teacher assessments into an ensemble model, we can predict cognitive ability at close to test-retest reliability of gold-standard tests (

Identifiers

PMID40610612
PMCPMC12229686

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.