Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40610581›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2025

The reemergence of the New World screwworm and its potential distribution in North America.

Uriel Mauricio Valdez-Espinoza, Lucas A Fadda, Roberta Marques, Luis Osorio-Olvera, Daniel Jiménez-García, Andrés Lira-Noriega

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Foundational reproduction programs for U.S. dairy herds.The Journal of reproduction and development · 2026
    Review
  9. Tracking human New World screwworm in the Americas: burden, spread, and knowledge gaps.Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health · 2026
    Review
  10. Article
  11. Review
  12. Article
  13. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Uriel Mauricio Valdez-EspinozaRed de Estudios Moleculares Avanzados, Instituto de Ecología A. C., Carretera antigua a Coatepec 351, El Haya, Xalapa, C. P. 91073, Veracruz, México.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5660-8061
Lucas A FaddaRed de Estudios Moleculares Avanzados, Instituto de Ecología A. C., Carretera antigua a Coatepec 351, El Haya, Xalapa, C. P. 91073, Veracruz, México.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0000-8663-8387
Roberta MarquesLaboratorio de Biodiversidad, Centro de Agroecología y Ambiente, Instituto de Ciencias, Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla, Edificio Val. 1, Km 1.7 carretera a San Baltazar Tetela, San Pedro Zacachimalpa, Puebla, C.P. 72960, Puebla, México.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5037-0718
Luis Osorio-OlveraLaboratorio de Ecoinformática de la Biodiversidad, Departamento de Ecología de la Biodiversidad, Instituto de Ecología, Unidad Mérida, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, 04510 Mérida, Yucatán, México.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0701-5398
Daniel Jiménez-GarcíaLaboratorio de Biodiversidad, Centro de Agroecología y Ambiente, Instituto de Ciencias, Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla, Edificio Val. 1, Km 1.7 carretera a San Baltazar Tetela, San Pedro Zacachimalpa, Puebla, C.P. 72960, Puebla, México. daniel.jimenez@correo.buap.mx.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2237-3305
Andrés Lira-NoriegaSecihti Research Fellow, Red de Estudios Moleculares Avanzados, Instituto de Ecología A. C., Carretera antigua a Coatepec 351, El Haya, Xalapa, C. P. 91073, Veracruz, México. aliranoriega@gmail.com.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3219-0019

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The reemergence of the New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) poses a significant threat to animal and public health with minimal regulatory oversight. This study analyzes the potential distribution and reemergence of this pest, which is endemic to South America but was previously eradicated in North America. We first developed bioclimatic suitability models, and then incorporated these findings along with reemergence records and inspection point data to simulate possible dispersal routes into Mexico and the United States. Our results document the historical distribution of C. hominivorax across the Americas and recent reemergence events in Panama (2023) and Mexico (2024-2025). Findings indicate high invasion potential from Central America, with significant risk along Mexico's Pacific and Atlantic coasts and the Yucatan Peninsula. In the United States, Texas and Florida face the highest risk. Regions with high livestock density in both countries demonstrate considerable climatic suitability for the pest. Our simulations identify Chiapas, Campeche, Tabasco, and Veracruz as critical northern dispersal points. The invadable areas contain substantial populations of domestic hosts, primarily cattle and horses. These findings will enable governmental authorities to develop comprehensive prevention and control strategies to address this emerging threat.

Indexed as

DipteraAnimalsCattleMexicoNorth AmericaUnited StatesCattleCochliomyia hominivoraxEcological nicheInvasionModelsSimulation

Identifiers

PMID40610581
PMCPMC12229696

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.